I've been a fan of the civilization series since II. However I haven't played all of them due to being busy at different points in my life. Didn't play VI for example, but I did enjoy V, some of the DLC for it was good IIRC.

I'm concerned about the pre-order push, and that there is going to be a Switch version. But it does look like it could be good? No way I'm pre-ordering, but would like something to look forward to.

I don't play many PC games these days because of how woke a lot of the shit is. I got burned on Cyberpunk, so now I pretty much play FS2020 and that's it these days. The last game I played through was System Shock remake, which I found to be decent enough.

BG3 won game of the year from Worth a Buy, but I hear it has a lot of gay sex?

I can't watch it because I value my sanity and blood pressure, but from what I'm seeing on patriots.win it likely isn't going well for Republicans?

If you are watching, what are your thoughts?

On Monday I saw an article that indicated the number of NY healthcare workers were going to get fired for not submitting to the vax mandate. Today it's "dozens".

I just saw United, which I think has 100k employees fired only 600. That's 0.6%.

Looks like a small percentage, 1% or less are actually willing to get fired over it. I was hoping for at least 5%, but even that is looking like a pipe dream.

It could be the media is lying about how many are actually being fired, but how long can the data actually be hidden for?

Does anyone else have evidence of more?

TLDR = Your risk of dying of COVID (if you catch it) is approximately equal to you dying of everything else in a given year.

We know well that the risk of death from COVID increases with age, but what is your risk, and how much risk is that from dying vs. other causes? I took a random sampling of 1 million COVID cases ranging in age from mid teens to 80s and the number of reported deaths for that group and compared it to CDC data from all deaths in 2018.

First for COVID:

To my surprise, the data fit an exponential function nearly perfectly. (% chance of death) = 0.006569417387EXP(0.0955814AGE). A random 25 year old, the chances of dying from catching COVID is 0.07%. a random 65 year old the chances of dying is 3.3%. At 85, the risk is 22.2%!

Keep in mind these numbers are for a random person, who might be obese with COPD, cancer and etc. If you are a healthy 25 year old then a personal risk is likely less than the 0.07% listed above, but if you do fit into those co-morbidity categories then your risk might be higher. Remember that risk is only if a person catches COVID, not as a random person who may or may not.

Now for all other causes:

Now lets compare the risk of death vs. other causes. I took CDC data from deaths per 100k in 2018 (pre COVID obviously) and made another exponential fit. It wasn’t quite as perfect, but still very good. The equation I got was: (% chance of death) =0.02519129EXP(0.07410344AGE. So a random 25, 65, and 85 year old would have a 0.16%, 3.11%, and 13.7% Chance of dying in a year. In this case there is less one can do to prevent death (it applies to everyone), like car accidents, etc, although not being in a gang or a drug addict certainly helps.

I was surprised at how closely the two exponential fits were to each other, and the crossover point is at about 60, where chance of dying of COVID (assuming one gets it) is larger than dying of all other causes. Of course, if I were 70, I’d probably risk the vax since a 5.3% chance of dying from contracting COVID added to a 4.5% chance of dying from all other causes is significant.

So one can see all the fear, lockdowns, and governmental over reach is all for nothing. Yes elderly people need to protect themselves, but if EVERYONE contracted COVID it would roughly double the number of deaths in a given year, then be over with, and it would be mostly people who are at the most risk of dying anyway.

Would be happy to take questions, or if you can poke holes in my analysis would appreciate that as well.

I'm interested in a relatively unbiased legal blog, twitter stream, update feed that I can follow to get general updates about what is happening. I don't have time to listen to the whole trial and I don't want color commentary like Crowder.

Thank you

“This country is doomed, it is doomed. Not just because of African Americans, but because by 2040 this country is going to be minority white European – you hear me? Minority white European...”[1] -Joe Biden in December 2020.

Reuters claims Biden's comment is a call for "progress on racial equity"[1], but the implementation of equity policies simply blame-shift the issue from those responsible for their education (the students and parents).

Once can see the blame shifting attitude in this foxbaltimore article and the corresponding interviews of the parent. "He didn't fail, the school failed him"[2]. Politicians like Biden earn the vote of the affected, like an addict coming for a fix of the drug that will ultimately kill him.

Decades ago they would blame funding. However that issue was essentially fixed in the 70s and 80s [3]. By my calculations the Baltimore school receives more than $13k per student. Now it is much easier to blame systemic racism "The idea that success comes primarily from hard work minimizes systemic problems many Black children face"[4].

The blame shifting feels good to both the affected people and leftists, ensuring votes for the same people put in charge to fix it generations ago. It does not address the underlying cultural issue, and will result in more generations of failed students. Even Sleepy Joe sees it and calls it out, too bad no one on the left is listening.

1. Reuters https://archive.is/wip/3e4im
2. Foxbaltimore https://archive.is/GX4cA
3. NAP https://archive.is/ykTTl
4. Seattle Times https://archive.is/enQSx

I stupidly preordered this game after one of the delay announcements because I stupidly believed that CDPR was making good on their promises. Then I stupidly didn't ask for a refund in the 30 day window. I don't have an excuse for that other than sheer laziness. You would think that I would have learned my lesson when I preordered Rome Total War 2 in 2014...

But the train of stupid continued when I bought a 3090 and I don't even own a g-sync compatible monitor.

The main point of all of this is, is it safe to play CyberPunk yet or do I need to keep waiting?

Like it or not today's actions at the capitol building will be condemned by the media, establishment minded republicans, and the religious right. It doesn't matter that what happened is minor compared to months of rioting, looting, and murder by the left and BLM. It doesn't matter that election fraud claims were dismissed without hearings and audit requests were denied.

When Trump lost in November I realized immediately that it would be nearly impossible for the political right to gain Casus Belli, and the actions today, much like Charlottesville are going to be used to oppress right wing thought for years to come. It is likely that the establishment republicans are going to vote for gun control measures to put the right wing populists in their place, when normally they would not.

The media, local and state governments, big tech, and other corporations all gave them(selves) Casus belli for their "mostly peaceful" actions throughout 2020. The vast majority of people will believe those narratives, and now they have another one to war on right wing populists with. I don't see any positive path from here. To be fair, I didn't see any positive path before today either, but I hoped at least some uniparty republicans would be afraid to enact a far left agenda, not any more.

I am sure there is a lot of cross traffic between here and thedonald.win, myself included, although I only lurk there. I've been lucking since before the 2016 election, before reddit even banned the original subreddit.

Since the election there has been a huge number of election fraud posts, and while some of them certainly seem to have merit, there are plenty that don't. As a consequence I see posts that call for "low energy pedes" to leave, or Republicans (that aren't Trump supporters) to leave, etc. I fear that the signal to noise ratio is too low, and it makes it too easy for the MSM to ignore.

I have my own theories about what happened with the election, why, and how, based on what I've read, that I hope are reasonable, but my title question is an important one. It also asks other things. Is the Trump movement growing or shrinking? Are reasonable voices being driven away who really want to sort the fact and fiction? Are we all deluding ourselves?