The only reason the referendum was promised was that internal polling showed a remain victory was guaranteed. It was to get rid of the issue permanently and allow a purge of Eurosceptic Conservative party members, not a response to UKIP, who were a fringe party and were most likely going to remain one.
It was both. I agree that all polling pointed to a comfortable remain victory, but they still wouldn't have risked a referendum if they weren't concerned about hemorrhaging votes to UKIP.
The only reason the referendum was promised was that internal polling showed a remain victory was guaranteed. It was to get rid of the issue permanently and allow a purge of Eurosceptic Conservative party members, not a response to UKIP, who were a fringe party and were most likely going to remain one.
It was both. I agree that all polling pointed to a comfortable remain victory, but they still wouldn't have risked a referendum if they weren't concerned about hemorrhaging votes to UKIP.