I think you're grossly over-estimating American supplies to the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union was still a massive industrial giant with enormous natural resources. The Arctic convoys were helpful, but they weren't the only thing keeping the USSR afloat.
If not one thing had been sent to the USSR, which is different than what you originally said, it's possible that the Wermacht would have gotten a little further, or the Collapse of the German line would have been a little slower, but the Soviet Union still wins, and might even make it to Berlin before the US.
Imagine doubling those and then make the argument that the few survivors would have been able to hold everything east of Berlin.
I don't think that Russian casualties would have doubled. Not by a long shot. Maybe you get an extra million or two. There's no way the Germans are so successful that they kill 40 million Soviets. That would have depleted pretty much the entirety of their manpower supply.
I think you're grossly over-estimating American supplies to the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union was still a massive industrial giant with enormous natural resources. The Arctic convoys were helpful, but they weren't the only thing keeping the USSR afloat.
If not one thing had been sent to the USSR, which is different than what you originally said, it's possible that the Wermacht would have gotten a little further, or the Collapse of the German line would have been a little slower, but the Soviet Union still wins, and might even make it to Berlin before the US.
I don't think that Russian casualties would have doubled. Not by a long shot. Maybe you get an extra million or two. There's no way the Germans are so successful that they kill 40 million Soviets. That would have depleted pretty much the entirety of their manpower supply.