I'm honestly not sure what it would turn into. Lukashenko doesn't seem like a good man, but when all the media and women's groups set up a firing squad, it makes me question what the truth is.
Yeah. Lukashenko's a dictator, and over his career he has not shied away from the repressive tactics that that job tends to require. Not a nice man.
But on the other hand, what's going on now stinks to high heaven. If you ask me, Brussels or Washington or maybe both are trying to depose him, install someone globohomo-friendly instead, and pull Belarus into their orbit. It's like the Arab Spring. This kind of thing doesn't happen on its own, and the fact that the media is giving it so much attention makes it clear that something's up. On top of that, I don't recall that this kind of "regime change" has ever actually made a country a better place for its citizens. It seems the best you can hope for is more of the same (like Egypt), and the worst is total collapse (like Libya).
I don't know near enough about Belarus, so someone please jump in here that does. As far I can tell, Lukashenko has been hoping China would protect him from Russia, but Xi cares more about Russia right now. The Fuhrer always has her sights on eastern europe. I don't know if removing Lukashenko is a good or bad thing.
I'm operating off the idea that if it's good for women, it's bad for everyone else. That's kind of how it always seems to work. No one can name a single thing that's good for them that helped society in general, other than blindingly obvious things like rape being illegal.
From my admittedly relatively uneducated perspective as someone on the outside:
Lukashenko is (or was) another one of Putin's guard dogs, like Kadyrov in Chechnya. His government operated at Putin's pleasure. Recently Putin has seemed to cut him loose and left him completely without support. Why Putin would do such a thing is unclear, though it might be COVID related. I imagine COVID is running rampant through Russia, as they closed their borders VERY late into the pandemic and their quarantine measures were very spotty or non-existent. Anyway, if Lukashenko still had Putin's support, these demonstrations would have been slapped down before they even got started.
I think it stands to reason that whoever replaces Lukashenko isn't going to be gaining office by any measure of merit. Belarus is a client state of Russia, and no one is going to rule that state without Putin's approval, as Russia in general is very aggressive in defending their own sphere of influence, small though it may be, and a simple change in leadership isn't going to change their client state status, which means the status quo for Belarus won't change, no matter who the leader ends up being.
China was trying to pry open Europe through Belarus, but recently indicated a change in direction. I wonder if they were setting up Lukashenko with false promises or if Putin slapped them down.
If that's true, that would be an exceptionally stupid move by China. Belarus is tied to Russia in a similar manner as Puerto Rico is tied to the US. Every aspect of the Belorussian economy relies on Russia. Belarus has almost nothing to do with the rest of Europe.
Let's hope not. Europe doesn't need another African and Islamic colony. Stay strong Belarus.
I'm honestly not sure what it would turn into. Lukashenko doesn't seem like a good man, but when all the media and women's groups set up a firing squad, it makes me question what the truth is.
Yeah. Lukashenko's a dictator, and over his career he has not shied away from the repressive tactics that that job tends to require. Not a nice man.
But on the other hand, what's going on now stinks to high heaven. If you ask me, Brussels or Washington or maybe both are trying to depose him, install someone globohomo-friendly instead, and pull Belarus into their orbit. It's like the Arab Spring. This kind of thing doesn't happen on its own, and the fact that the media is giving it so much attention makes it clear that something's up. On top of that, I don't recall that this kind of "regime change" has ever actually made a country a better place for its citizens. It seems the best you can hope for is more of the same (like Egypt), and the worst is total collapse (like Libya).
https://kotakuinaction2.win/p/GcH0M025/am-i-crazy-or-is-the-belarusian-/c/
Called it.
I don't know near enough about Belarus, so someone please jump in here that does. As far I can tell, Lukashenko has been hoping China would protect him from Russia, but Xi cares more about Russia right now. The Fuhrer always has her sights on eastern europe. I don't know if removing Lukashenko is a good or bad thing.
I'm operating off the idea that if it's good for women, it's bad for everyone else. That's kind of how it always seems to work. No one can name a single thing that's good for them that helped society in general, other than blindingly obvious things like rape being illegal.
I favor a more Rothbardian approach. The details are always important.
From my admittedly relatively uneducated perspective as someone on the outside:
Lukashenko is (or was) another one of Putin's guard dogs, like Kadyrov in Chechnya. His government operated at Putin's pleasure. Recently Putin has seemed to cut him loose and left him completely without support. Why Putin would do such a thing is unclear, though it might be COVID related. I imagine COVID is running rampant through Russia, as they closed their borders VERY late into the pandemic and their quarantine measures were very spotty or non-existent. Anyway, if Lukashenko still had Putin's support, these demonstrations would have been slapped down before they even got started.
I think it stands to reason that whoever replaces Lukashenko isn't going to be gaining office by any measure of merit. Belarus is a client state of Russia, and no one is going to rule that state without Putin's approval, as Russia in general is very aggressive in defending their own sphere of influence, small though it may be, and a simple change in leadership isn't going to change their client state status, which means the status quo for Belarus won't change, no matter who the leader ends up being.
China was trying to pry open Europe through Belarus, but recently indicated a change in direction. I wonder if they were setting up Lukashenko with false promises or if Putin slapped them down.
If that's true, that would be an exceptionally stupid move by China. Belarus is tied to Russia in a similar manner as Puerto Rico is tied to the US. Every aspect of the Belorussian economy relies on Russia. Belarus has almost nothing to do with the rest of Europe.
If I could live long enough to benefit from it, I would put money on Belarus becoming a Russian puppet again before the end of the century.