Article 49 of the Geneva Conventions prohibits ethnic cleansing:
Individual or mass forcible transfers, as well as deportations of protected persons from occupied territory to the territory of the Occupying Power or to that of any other country, occupied or not, are prohibited, regardless of their motive.
Any coerced transfer of Palestinians to the Sinai or Jordan or wherever would be a prima facie violation of this statute.
I know the response from many would be, "war crimes aren't real," and as much as I disagree with that viewpoint, let's set it aside. The real significance here is that if the United States and Israel openly commit ethnic cleansing, that act would be the official abandonment of the postwar moral consensus that has ruled the institutions of the First World for almost 80 years. The secular religion of the United States defines Hitler as Satan and the Geneva Conventions as its commandments. To flout those commandments would be publicly discarding the standard that makes Hitler into Satan.
Yes, US proxies have violated the Geneva Conventions several times and gotten away with it if they were valuable enough. But the fallout of this decision would be far bigger than that. Popes have gotten away with all kinds of degeneracy and graft behind the scenes, but a Pope has never publicly broken the commandments against adultery or theft and told everyone to just get over it.
The natural response would be, "well if you can get away with it, how come Satan can't?" And the emperor has no clothes.
Russia justifies its own actions with the failings of the US all the time. Putin referred to the treatment of J6ers and asked how the US has any right to speak about treatment of dissidents. Let me guess, you think this doesn't really matter and Putin is just yapping on TV to pass the time?
Weaker countries are doing more of X in direct proportion to the weakening of the US reputation. Azerbaijan would not have made the same moves in the 90s. The US messing around in Iraq and Afghanistan made it easier for Russia to move into Crimea and Ukraine.
The most important effect of this, though, is on the status of Israel and Jews since both are the direct beneficiaries of the Holocaust-derived postwar morality. You already saw how worldwide trends turned sharply against Israel after Oct 7th. If ethnic cleansing takes place, you are looking at the same movement, except exponentially more powerful.
Unfortunately, it doesn't seem to matter much. The Great Firewall of Western Propaganda sure stops any such thing from penetrating the mind of anyone here, as anything sensible is labeled as 'Russian propaganda'. Now, if you argue that US actions might help Putin justify his actions to domestic audiences, you will have a point.
It tried the same thing but lost the war to Armenia. Georgia tried to exterminate the population of Abkhazia and South Ossetia but it also lost.
The US messing around in Ukraine forced Russia's hand to go into Crimea.
Eh, 'worldwide trends' aren't doing anything. They're not doing anything against a tiny state of 7 million people, albeit one supported by the US. How much would they be able to do against the world's greatest superpower? You think Germany would object more to so called 'ethnic cleansing' than to getting its energy infrastructure blown up and the Morgenthau plan effectively being put into effect with its deinstustrialization?
Yes. That's precisely what I'm saying.
Fair enough. Maybe I should restate my point that "Yugoslavia would have gotten away with it" in today's world.
Not mutually exclusive statements.
Yep, as I thought, "no this doesn't matter"
Israel is polling at sub 30% favorability with Americans 35 and under. They're living on borrowed time and by extension, the whole Jewish diaspora is in trouble.
Then you have a point. But how much it actually affects the actions of states, as oppose dto post facto justification, is a separate matter. It's very easy to persuade people to go to war, you know, regardless of nominal form of government. Goering pointed that out right before he was executed.
That depends not on the morality of the matter, but on whether it is in the interests of the #1 great power to do something about it. It seems to be very interested in breaking up hostile states, so I'd say no, they'd have bombed Yugoslavia into smithereens even today.
You're correct: the same hubris that led the US to conquer Iraq led it to try the same in Ukraine. I think Russia would have done the same regardless of what happened in Iraq though. It wasn't going to hand over its only warm water port to NATO under any circumstance.
What is the favorability of Egypt or Saudi Arabia? Or UAE? Or China when Nixon went there?
What Americans believe about foreign policy simply does not matter to the rulers. They want their stationary aircraft carrier in the Middle East, and by golly, they'll do anything to keep it. They will then clothe this in rhetoric that appeals to liberals ("only democracy in the middle east") or evangelicals ("God's chosen people").
Propaganda seizes on sources of discontent. American actions give Putin an opening just as French and British actions gave Hitler an opening. The propaganda then harnesses the groundswell of energy from the people. Goering said it was easy to start a war because at the time it actually was stunningly easy!
You seem to think I'm saying American power brokers actually care about the Geneva Conventions in their heart of hearts. What I am saying in fact is that they don't care, but they use the conventions as a tool to manufacture consent. If Israel turns Gaza into a resort, that tool is now broken. And yes - that matters!
You seem to come back to this theme that consent of the people is insignificant because governments simply do what they want. In reality it is highly significant and when improperly managed the people will revolt. This past November is an earthshattering demonstration.
Of course Russia always had their sights on Crimea, but then you have to ask yourself: why invade in 2014? Why not 2012? 2005? The obvious answer is because in 2014 America had weakened itself in Iraq and Afghanistan and degraded itself with Obama's self-flagellation.
Totally irrelevant. Israel's entire existence depends on their umbilical cord to America, and when zoomers and disenchanted millennials become powerful enough to cut it off, Israel is done. Don't believe me? Then ask yourself why the deep state is getting thrown out in the street by a bunch of 19-year olds.
I truly don't understand how you can type "what Americans believe about foreign policy simply doesn't matter" when MAGA saved us from invading Iran with Nikki Haley or anyone else at the helm. It would also be worth considering why we haven't invaded Iran previously, as well.