Too bad it was a U.S. Navy Super Hornet. I'm applying the Coulter rule, and the fact that it's been a couple of days and no poor missile tech has been publicly named and shamed tells me it was probably a DEI hire. Add this to the fact that retired admirals are talking about maintenance and staffing concerns... can't wait for the new and improved Navy ads targeted at white guys, fellahs.
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Yeah, there are a bunch of different options, and we might never know, since governments love lying to people.
Could be friendly fire, could be false flag that we're claiming is friendly fire, or could be, as you say, one of our rivals calling the US's bluff and blowing one of our planes out of the sky. Friendly fire is actually the least bad option and, regardless, I'm glad that's what we're going with, because whoever did it, any other reaction would lead to much worse outcomes.