We're coming up on Month 5 of the fabled four week Ukrainian offensive that was to have pushed the Russians back to Moscow by August. The Ukranians are estimated to have taken more than a quarter of a million casualties, are almost totally out of armored vehicles and are largely down to attacking in waves like zombies by drugging their conscripted soldiers with methamphetamine. We've even seen the most blatant attempt at a CIA color revolution in our lifetimes in the form of the hastily aborted Wagner rebellion, and the company has since largely been absorbed into the Russian Ministry of Defense. And we've finally started seeing fatigue set in within the US political system as the normally cowardly cuckolds of the Republican party are now suggesting that pouring a third of the defense budget into the most corrupt country on earth might have been a bad idea.
Thus I ask, how do you think the conflict will be resolved?
One small caveat, since I haven't seen this mentioned much on the site. The Russians officially consider the United States a belligerent in the war, and won't accept negotiations brokered by the US government. Turns out lend lease isn't a trick that works twice.
In short: Blowback.
The Donbass region is under Russian control, so is Crimea, and so is most of the Black Sea coast; which is geo-politically valuable to Russia from a naval standpoint.
However, the current Ukrainian regime will continue to be considered dictatorial and corrupt by most Ukrainians, even the western ones. It's pretty bad when the rest of Eastern Europe thinks your too corrupt. However, installing a pro-Russian puppet state will not be possible due to western Ukrainian animosity.
Unfortunately, we're going to get the worst possible outcome. The Uranian National Socialists will be seen as independent enough not to be American vassals, and be aggressive enough to not be Russian vassals. Honestly, I expect it to turn into something a bit more antagonistic than Francoist Spain or the Neuvo State in Portugal, after all, they're Nazis, not Fascists.
There will probably end up being a National Socialist overthrow of the corrupt American vassal regime, and it will send Russia into a panic. However, they won't be able to be as aggressive as their former German counter parts, so a war won't be very likely early on. Instead, they'll probably just solidify control, expand the military, and wage limited scale proxy wars or create contractors for hire. Sure, they'll probably kill a hundred thousand people within their own borders, but the Americans might just decide to look the other way to keep some influence in the country and to use them as an ally against Russia.
Now, if the GAE collapses in the coming years, it will be a bigger concern for Germany, Poland, and Greece to deal with; and they'd probably be more willing to make deals with the Nazis to keep the Russians off their backs.
If, on the other hand, the GAE collapses and we decide to become closer to Russia in order to keep the Chinese off balance, then we might end up having to have a Russian, German, American invasion of Ukraine to remove the regime.
No matter what happens, we completely fucked the dog on this one, and we've ensured the deaths of at least 100,000 more people; it just depends on who's people are going to die.
And just to be clear: it's 100% our fault.