We all know Trump and his followers have been going all-out attacking DeSantis this past week, and one of their battle cries is that DeSantis has supposedly "cratered in the polls". Not so:
The surveys, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies from March 21 to 23 for an outside client (not a candidate or super PAC) found DeSantis leading Trump by eight points (45%-37%) in a head-to-head matchup in Iowa and tied with Trump (39%-39%) in New Hampshire.
DeSantis' overall image is the strongest of all the prospective GOP candidates in both states. In Iowa, his favorability/unfavorability rating was a sterling 81%-11%. Trump's was 74%-24%. In New Hampshire, DeSantis' favorability rating was 77%-15%, while Trump's was 69%-29%.
In New Hampshire, 48% viewed DeSantis as the better candidate to defeat Biden, while 46% thought Trump was more electable. In Iowa, 54% viewed DeSantis as more electable, compared to 44% for Trump.
Trump's biggest weakness was on temperament: 68% of Iowa Republicans rated DeSantis as having a better temperament than Trump, while 71% said the same in New Hampshire.
As much as I want to believe that these polls are accurate I still won't trust any polls.
I hope Iowa and New Hamsphire Republicans make the right choice in the primary next year and help create some momentum for DeSantis in the early primary states.
I think Nevada is a very favorable state for Trump thanks to the huge number of voters without college degrees in that state so he likely will be winning that one for sure.
South Carolina will be interesting. It is a state where establishment candidates generally win the nominations for state and federal races. Hard to say who that state favors right now.
My guess is that DeSantis has a good shot at winning Iowa and NH.
Trump likely wins Nevada.
They both fight it out for South Carolina.
I know that the later states of Florida, Georgia and Utah are DeSantis states in the primary.
Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan are likely Trump states in the primary.
New York, California and Texas will be worth a lot of delegates so I would think there would be a big battle for these three states.
This primary is likely going to be a grueling one.
A lot depends on whether attention whores like Neocon Nikki and the pajeet guy drop out of the race when they crash and burn early on. DeSantis needs a majority, but clowns who are only in it for vanity reasons can keep him from getting it and lead to Trump winning a plurality.
I think Vivek doesn't even get 2 percent of the vote. Him staying in doesn't matter.
Neocon Nikki could siphon up to 7 percent away from DeSantis.
Mike Pence could siphon up to 5 percent away from DeSantis.
Getting these two to drop out would be a significant boon to beating Trump in a primary.
The smart play for DeSantis is to give these two grifters a meaningless cabinet post each and get them to drop out early.
Pence is dumb enough to actually run even though every other branch of the right hates him except for some evangelicals.