Ya'll got any of that... global warming?
(media.kotakuinaction2.win)
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I don't believe that at all. Putting aside the silly Rostov thing you threw in to rig the hypothetical, if Putin simply said "war is over, we will withdraw to the prewar borders and leave Crimea/Donbas" he would receive broad support from both his people as well as the elites.
Putin is dragging his elites along grudgingly into this war, and pushing their limits. The Russian elite don't want this war and hope it will be over ASAP. While they won't be happy with a national humiliation, if that means an end to sanctions and if it means they can play in their private jets and yachts in Europe again, they'll be happy.
The far right in Russia is very weak, and quite a lot of them are dead now, since those are the type of people who would have volunteered last year.
I wanted to make the treason as plainly obvious as possible. What you describe would certainly lead to his fall, and quite possibly to his death a la Beria, who was thought by the Politburo to have pulled a similar stunt (causing the German uprising with his liberalization).
Question: do you think the bureaucracy, the army and the FSB are going to be happy at that? The oligarchs don't have any power anymore. That's one of the good things Putin did. The security forces are in charge.
The army has been gutted by the war and is relying on mobiks. Even the hard core nationalists on TV are clearly showing signs of despair. Look how many Russian bodies are being thrown at Ukrainian lines to take tiny bits of land. At this rate, the whole Russian military will be ground to dust before it can even take the remainder of the Donbas.
YOU won't accept a Russian capitulation easily from the comfort of your room, but would the russian nationalists try to murder Putin, when he controls the whole murder regime? No, it is much, much more likely that the nationalists who threw a fit over any retreat would find themselves falling of of balconies before Putin would.
I don't believe that at all. If it were true, Putin would have ordered a full mobilization already. It's his only chance of winning the war, and he still can't do it because the oligarchs would all flee like rats off a sinking ship if he tried, and the economy would collapse.