Has to be NY Governor for me. Hochul is a woman who just fails upward and has never won an actual election.
Zeldin taking her down would mean a lot and send a shiver down the spines of many women in politics.
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Honestly, I'm not sure and would put it at a coin flip right now. Where I'm at, there's Zeldin signs all over the place, but then in my house district it's been solidly (15 pts or more) red for over a decade so that's not too surprising.
Of course, the big question (as always) just comes down to the NYC vote which pretty much always goes very heavily D. I think Hochul may be incompetent and stuck up enough to scare enough people away (or even just make them stay home) to let Zeldin squeak it out though.