All he’s doing is refuting yours

He says there will be one. Let him come with a timetable.

You’re trying to trap him into a specific falsifiable statement when what’s really happening is that you made your own (very open-ended) prediction

Yet very easy to refute. If there's a draft tomorrow, you can call me wrong. If there's a draft 10 years from now, you can call me wrong. I'd like him to put himself on the spot as well.

it doesn’t erase that your own assertion could prove wrong on a slightly longer one.

Me, wrong? Impossible!

Of course I 'could be' wrong. But I won't be, because odds are so tiny. I'm trying to trap him in making a confident assertion about something that extremely unlikely, which is his wont.

Imp is a nutball, but he’s right that you’re potentially wrong here.

Hate to use the Nate Silver defense, but odds matter.

Imp is a nutball, but he’s right that you’re potentially wrong here.

I can't tell which one of them is crazier.

Imp posts wacko shit all the time and is the definition of a broken clock being right twice a day, but Tony has a borderline psychotic obsession with him to the point of stalking his comments to be the first to reply.

Every time I see a long comment chain, I don't have to look at the usernames anymore because I know who it's going to be.