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posted 3 years ago by NihilistCaregiver 3 years ago by NihilistCaregiver +26 / -0
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– lgbtqwtfbbq 13 points 3 years ago +13 / -0

In regulated industry something called a "risk analysis" is performed where hazards are identified, and each is assigned a "probability of occurrence" and a "severity of harm". If the combined value of those two things is unacceptably high, one tries to reduce the probability or severity (or both), with the understanding that it isn't possible to eliminate either entirely and there will be what is called a "residual risk" that is considered acceptable.

This is a situation where I think everyone worried about such things needs to sit down and think about all the things that can go wrong (eg. Carrington Event, where every electromagnetic system not specifically radiation hardened will fail), try to assess how likely they think that is to occur, what will happen to them personally if it does, and make the decision as to what constitutes an acceptable risk. And if some hazard presents an unacceptable risk, attempt to decrease the probability or severity. This I think is the general mindset people need to adopt.

Even though the Amish and Mennonites are well situated to handle a severe breakdown in civilization, they probably aren't well situated if it (eg.) declines to the point where Mexican-style cartels start to appear and militarized cartel violence starts to occur. Or (eg.) State-sanctioned land seizures using militarized enforcement agents. So even for them there are limits to what hazards they would be able to handle.

Re: food and grocery stores, I drive past a good half-dozen farms just on my way to the nearest highway that will sell meat, eggs, milk, etc... Some local farms sell "shares" (usually quarters, halves, and wholes) of beef and pork which is something I need to seriously look into. I generally buy things at the store because it's more convenient, but it's not the only option. Of course then the question becomes "do these farms produce enough food to be the sole source for the surrounding population?" and they might not but also might be enough to bootstrap the population while they attempt to increase the food supply.

Power is an issue, but I think the more likely outcome there is our grid reliability degrades to that of the third-world: functional but with frequent (and maybe periodic such as at night) outages. Perhaps it's something like on Pitcairn Island, where they simply shut the generator off from the hours of 10pm to 6am.

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