I am not an American, so don't have a clear picture of how the situation is over there (does sound bad), or how likely it actually is for something like a Civil War to break out, but I am hearing about it a lot from all sorts of people.
On the other hand, nothing of the sort seems to be happening, even though the US is supposedly being destroyed, stolen elections, inflation, tensions everywhere, left and right seemingly incapable of coexisting anymore, immigrant invasion, LGBT shit everywhere, people's kids groomed everywhere, and so on.
If all this is not enough, then what will it take? How would it happen? Who would fight with whom?
Based on the fact that nothing has happened so far with all of the above, and more, it sounds like nothing will ever happen.
Extremely low for the forseeable future
Civil Wars are usually a result of a divided elite competing against each other. Our elites are actually pretty unified. The animosity among them is about petty personal things and managerial disputes. It's nothing like the Civil War period in the US where there were industrialists vs. plantation owners. Today's elites end up unified via financialization.