I think the scale is tipping back in their favor. They have been buying up a lot of current-gen F-16's (the ones that have gotten a ton of upgrades to the avionics and radar), and they have been getting a pretty extensive SAM network. They also have a pretty significant anti-ship missile capability now (thank you Trump), and have even started upgrading their navy. Japan has also said that they will view an attack on Taiwan as an Article 9 worthy event, so its unlikely Taiwan would even be going it alone.

And this is of course all assuming you believe the Chinese combat capabilities. Because lets be honest: China uses most of the same stuff Russia does, and we have spent months seeing that their shit is nowhere near as effective as was advertised.