This is a broad discussion style post, but it is something I have been thinking about over the last year. There has been repeat discussions on which of the anglo countries are the most screwed (personally, I think it is America with Americans of European descent set to be no longer the majority in just a couple decades). All of the west has declining birth rates plus feminism and other leftist thought having replaced Christianity. I know this is an incredibly vague topic but I am curious as to how the various western countries are fairing compared to each other.
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Cubazuela plus Nicaragua (who are being joined by Peru, Chile, Colombia, etc as old Communist guerrillas finally get to power throughout the region despite having failed with armed revolutionary struggles, just like in V originally) are getting massively propped by Russia now. They're not collapsing, they're on the march like never before.
Bolivia practically goes alongside your first three. Morales and Arce have created a Leftist dominant-party system similar to that in Venezuela.
Honduras also goes into your second group. The Honduran military were able to stave off these people for a while by forcibly ousting Zelaya. However, Zelaya's wife has since been elected President.
Brazil will also rejoin that group next election.
So you're correct in saying that the pink tide, despite seeing serious setbacks with the election of more conservative or at least classical liberal people, like Bolsonaro, Uruguay's Lacalle Pou and Ecuador's Lasso, is making serious gains.