Putin: "If you try to put Georgia into NATO I will invade"
US: "Hey everybody let's put Georgia into NATO"
Putin creates internal strife so it won't qualify under NATO charter
US: "Nah that's ok we'll put Georgia into NATO anyway"
Putin invades Georgia
US: "Ehh I guess Georgia kind of sucks anyway"
Georgia gets along with everybody

...

Putin: "If you try to put Ukraine into NATO I will invade"
US: "Hey everybody let's put Ukraine into NATO"
Putin creates internal strife so it won't qualify under NATO charter
US: "Nah that's ok we'll put Ukraine into NATO anyway"
Putin invades Ukraine

...but how could we have seen this coming?!