Just so we're clear: I've been waiting for the next recession for over a decade. I'm the one who talked about shorting stocks of the Fabian Socialist capital, back on the original KiA.

I said it before, but now I must insist: BE THE PINECONE

The mortgage industry is facing complete collapse. This is a result of most of the industry trying to focus on refinancing, rather than purchases. Now due to inflation, builders can't build homes. Prices are going up, and now interest rates are being cut. What that means is that people are going to start struggling to even pay their mortgages. What that means is that the Mortgage Backed Securities are going to start becoming unprofitable. What that means is that everything that depends on those MBS to be profitable is going to fail. And what depends on those MBS's? Everything. Government bonds, pensions, treasuries, sovereign debt, retirement funds... everything.

There is a world wide cost of living crisis due to inflationary policy. The Fed is making signals that it's going to try and fight inflation, by basically tanking the entire stock market. Frankly, if they were to do this, it wouldn't even be wrong. They no longer have much of a choice because they put it off too long. More likely, they won't until it's too late and the whole world economy really does fall off a cliff and they won't be able to stop it. Worse, the government backers of these mortgages are basically saying they won't be backing most mortgages anymore. Without that, no bank is willing to risk making a 30 year, hundred thousand dollar loan, to Joe Blow from Kokomo, who has a credit rating of 580. The mortgage industry is dead. That means the foundation of the entire debt system goes with it. That's what retirements, pensions, and sovereign debt rely on. If you keep all the lumberjacks home for a year, you will get a wood shortage the next year, and a furniture shortage after that. The mortgage industry works the same way; and the mortgage industry is financing everyone's stock market.

How dead is it? Go onto a search engine of your choice, and search "mortgage layoffs". Every major mortgage company has been laying off people like mad for a couple months now. 10%, 20%, 30% of all staff. This is because there's not enough homes, not enough borrowers, not enough people who can pay the loans, and now very soon everyone's interest payments are going to jump. Foreclosures will start to increase, and then there's nothing that can stop the inevitable. The Perennial Gale of Creative Destruction will not be denied. A market of lies must correct to reality.

This isn't like the Great Recession, because the truth is that in the Great Recession, a lot of people were too stupid to see the truth. I don't think anyone who matters is missing the signals now. Everyone's reacting aggressively to try and get to a seat before the music stops, and they all know it's coming. Nobody just wants to say it out loud because it's scary, and people are already scared, and the market would react even worse to fear.

But you know why I've been waiting for this for a decade? Because good, nice, clean people with middle class incomes lost fucking everything and asked under-class me if they could live in my garage. People with kids. Whole neighborhoods were abandoned. People lost futures. People lost hope.

I don't want that to happen to you.

Any of you. Even the retards among us. It's terrible and I want you to be okay.

So, here's what we do.

• Prep for hard times
• Save your money
• Grow through the collapse

Prep for hard times: get you're supply of food. Get your supply of heating items. Just get it now and put in storage however you can. Make arrangements for the winter, however you need to. I'm not saying it will turn into mad max, and it won't. But I am saying that 1 month of emergency rations will certainly help. It's going to be hard times for everyone, but you're NOT going to be the person caught with nothing.

Save your money: slow your spending on frivolous shit unless that shit can be sold as a useful asset later. Start pulling cash out of the bank now so you have it on the side, just in case someone gets the idea to restrict withdraw limits from your bank accounts. Gold, Silver, Crypto, I don't really care which one you do or don't like, you might as well have some of each. I rely on you to make the best decision for you on that front.

Grow through the collapse: this is a hard lesson. During collapse is the time where the most real growth will take place. Not through good times. The elites know this, and they are positioning themselves to be the beneficiaries of the largest transfer of wealth in human history. Hunkering down is good for a bit, but you are going to need to seize opportunities and take risks during the collapse. You actually get rewarded the most at that time. If you have a skill, get paid for it, and prove you're indispensable. If you see an opportunity that's not being taken advantage of, seize on it. This is actually the time you need to streamline, become more efficient, and be more aggressive. If it's not making you money, influence, or career advancement, why are you doing it? Advance your career by as you need to, and take responsibility from others who aren't pulling their weight, or seem lost. Don't wait for them to self-correct. Become the pillar of your own little communities that people can trust and go to for advice.

This is the essence of being the pinecone.

The Great Collapse will burn away all the brush, and if we have prepared ourselves properly, we will open up from the heat of the fire, root in the ash, and we will rise again

Fuck the Black Pills. Everyone's called me crazy already. Maybe I'm deluded. Maybe I'm a lunatic. Hell, let's assume I am.

But I believe in you, and you should to.

When we look back on our own histories, I don't want you to remember that you were the victim in this story. I want you to look back and see yourself as the hero.

When all this is over, I want you to remember what you accomplished when everyone, and everything, collapsed. I want you to remember that reading this post made you start thinking about how you would be the pillar of your friends and family, and we bore our crosses, and re-built our civilization on our backs.

Be the pinecone.