Also, the first range is specifically for Ukranian military, the second range is for (unspecified) civilians, and how they're made "casualties" is not specified, either (could be direct bombing/military incursion of cities, or could be by supply chain and energy disruption. No food, no heat. Riots.)
Honestly all such estimates are just wild guesswork. Like how even planners of it excepted that thousands of Americans might die in Gulf War, and analysts were talking of tens of thousands of casualties (and the public was oddly okay with it). For example, Zbigniew Brzezinski predicted 20,000 casualties (Schwarzkopf's own "worst case scenario" was in this range, with 18,000 hospital beds prepared in American bases) and others were like 100,000 people including 10,000 Americans in just "the first phase". And it was their own war.
Also, the first range is specifically for Ukranian military, the second range is for (unspecified) civilians, and how they're made "casualties" is not specified, either (could be direct bombing/military incursion of cities, or could be by supply chain and energy disruption. No food, no heat. Riots.)
Honestly all such estimates are just wild guesswork. Like how even planners of it excepted that thousands of Americans might die in Gulf War, and analysts were talking of tens of thousands of casualties (and the public was oddly okay with it). For example, Zbigniew Brzezinski predicted 20,000 casualties (Schwarzkopf's own "worst case scenario" was in this range, with 18,000 hospital beds prepared in American bases) and others were like 100,000 people including 10,000 Americans in just "the first phase". And it was their own war.