I have to ask now: do you trust your own emotions? I don't mean as a guiding beacon for making decisions, either. What you just said implies that you can't ever trust that your emotions are anything but illusions and trickery.
If you want to ignore/discard your emotions, that's your right, of course. But "sunken cost fallacy" applies outside of emotions as well, and I don't want to see people crippled by self-doubt.
Pretty much. You have to shut emotion out of big decisions or you will justify whatever mistake you make after the fact.
Sunken cost fallacy is predominantly a financial thing, with either investments "I dumped $1000 into GameStop, maybe I should buy more to average down" or overrunning projects "This roof rebuild is taking way longer than it should have, but I can't give up now". But it can be referred to in any situation, including the vaccine "I've already got it, but I guess I should get the booster to keep it working", marriage "I'm already in one, they can't be that bad. I just have to hold the line and hope it doesn't get like people say" etc.
As Warren Buffett says, nobody cares how much you put in to achieve something, only the value of it, as he found out when he tried to keep the original business behind Berkshire Hathaway running. It was a lot of effort for low rewards relative to it.
Ah, right, I forgot you were fairly involved in investment stuff. Makes sense you'd understand the sunken cost thing is intended to apply there. I just wanted to make sure you weren't taking it to an extreme.
Outside of financing, I disagree that emotions should necessarily be discarded. Personally, if my emotions get me in trouble, I try to either update the data that the emotions came out of or I try to remember to be more logical for whatever type of matter it was. Most of the time, it is a choice to rely on emotions (I consider instinct and reflex as similar forms of non-logic), so one should take responsibility for that choice if it results in failure or trouble.
Although, similar to your Warren Buffett example, I think it's alright to fuck up a lot as long as you eventually straighten up. Some people are just slow learners, after all. Such a person should feel like a retard for wasting resources - and once a cetain threshold is reached on that waste, it becomes impossible to justify even with success. I'm reluctant to apply this strictly, because I see too many people give up where they're mis-evaluating their waste vs potential gain.
Well, I've made a few bad investment decisions and reviewed them. Palantir, I bought into a hype train that was about to stop. Qudian Inc was when I bought into an investment philosophy I didn't believe in (buy companies with huge cash reserves) and took a huge loss. Both of these were 40-50% losses. I was way too optimistic about the European reopening when I bought into Ryanair and took a loss there too, but at least there's hope that will improve. That's a $1500 position though, so there's more riding on it than the $300 total on the other two. Visa, I bought out of spite for Mastercard and Amazon fucked me over on it. I used to own Pfizer stock, but I sold out at something like $40 a share for my own mental health.
I'm just glad I didn't do what everyone else who fell for Palantir did and dollar-cost average it down, because it's still junk stock.
Instead, I doubled my Microsoft stake to 5% of my portfolio, and rode that train all the way to where it is today, $330 a share.
As for non-financial decisions, I don't make that many decisions of consequence. I don't get into relationships so no need to decide on that, for instance.
I have to ask now: do you trust your own emotions? I don't mean as a guiding beacon for making decisions, either. What you just said implies that you can't ever trust that your emotions are anything but illusions and trickery.
If you want to ignore/discard your emotions, that's your right, of course. But "sunken cost fallacy" applies outside of emotions as well, and I don't want to see people crippled by self-doubt.
Pretty much. You have to shut emotion out of big decisions or you will justify whatever mistake you make after the fact.
Sunken cost fallacy is predominantly a financial thing, with either investments "I dumped $1000 into GameStop, maybe I should buy more to average down" or overrunning projects "This roof rebuild is taking way longer than it should have, but I can't give up now". But it can be referred to in any situation, including the vaccine "I've already got it, but I guess I should get the booster to keep it working", marriage "I'm already in one, they can't be that bad. I just have to hold the line and hope it doesn't get like people say" etc.
As Warren Buffett says, nobody cares how much you put in to achieve something, only the value of it, as he found out when he tried to keep the original business behind Berkshire Hathaway running. It was a lot of effort for low rewards relative to it.
Ah, right, I forgot you were fairly involved in investment stuff. Makes sense you'd understand the sunken cost thing is intended to apply there. I just wanted to make sure you weren't taking it to an extreme.
Outside of financing, I disagree that emotions should necessarily be discarded. Personally, if my emotions get me in trouble, I try to either update the data that the emotions came out of or I try to remember to be more logical for whatever type of matter it was. Most of the time, it is a choice to rely on emotions (I consider instinct and reflex as similar forms of non-logic), so one should take responsibility for that choice if it results in failure or trouble.
Although, similar to your Warren Buffett example, I think it's alright to fuck up a lot as long as you eventually straighten up. Some people are just slow learners, after all. Such a person should feel like a retard for wasting resources - and once a cetain threshold is reached on that waste, it becomes impossible to justify even with success. I'm reluctant to apply this strictly, because I see too many people give up where they're mis-evaluating their waste vs potential gain.
Well, I've made a few bad investment decisions and reviewed them. Palantir, I bought into a hype train that was about to stop. Qudian Inc was when I bought into an investment philosophy I didn't believe in (buy companies with huge cash reserves) and took a huge loss. Both of these were 40-50% losses. I was way too optimistic about the European reopening when I bought into Ryanair and took a loss there too, but at least there's hope that will improve. That's a $1500 position though, so there's more riding on it than the $300 total on the other two. Visa, I bought out of spite for Mastercard and Amazon fucked me over on it. I used to own Pfizer stock, but I sold out at something like $40 a share for my own mental health.
I'm just glad I didn't do what everyone else who fell for Palantir did and dollar-cost average it down, because it's still junk stock.
Instead, I doubled my Microsoft stake to 5% of my portfolio, and rode that train all the way to where it is today, $330 a share.
As for non-financial decisions, I don't make that many decisions of consequence. I don't get into relationships so no need to decide on that, for instance.