This is siege warfare, and it's going to move at a crawl - just, at this point, there will be bursts. The critical line is when these crackpot authoritarians decide it's time for yet more flexings to make examples of yet more people. There isn't going to be a dam burst, or a sudden turn - this is going to be a slow, agonizing process barring some stroke of good fortune with moments where things stagger, loose momentum, then start hobbling along again. I've never been someone to claim one midterm cycle fixes everything - we are in a very deep hole that's been dug for decades, and it will take a comparable effort to get ourselves out.
They can state this is the new normal all they want, but how the hell are they actually going to enforce it when they've staffed themselves with nothing but political cronies? When they think shouting at the media ticks the 'appeal to the public' box? Things are different. We're a different country now, especially now that all they do to appeal to people is to scare them, and all the charm from even the Obama era has been thrown out the window as inconvenient. We aren't going back to any kind of normal we've known at this point - this will flare to some kind of confrontation.
It's going to escalate until it can't, and what's going to accelerate things is all the damage that's been done to society over the past year and a half. Loss of societal trust is a big one, and it's the most tragic one. I've felt ever since the election that the powers-that-be have decided to basically punish the people at large for daring to attempt to embrace populism, and I'm betting long term that will be what leads to their downfall.
We're a different country now, especially now that all they do to appeal to people is to scare them, and all the charm from even the Obama era has been thrown out the window as inconvenient. We aren't going back to any kind of normal we've known at this point - this will flare to some kind of confrontation.
I think this confrontation is coming sooner than people think. The foundations are already being laid. City, county and even some state governments will simply refuse to acknowledge federal authority, as some already have. Eventually every jurisdiction will be forced to choose a side. At some point the federal (or in some cases state) government will try to impose it's will by force and there will be armed stand-offs between local law enforcement and federal agencies. The military may get involved. Local militias will get involved. The ugliest game of chicken will ensue. At some point foreign powers may try to take advantage of our divisions and either invade for some trumped up reason or influence one side or the other to their advantage (as they already are, most likely).
I know.
This is siege warfare, and it's going to move at a crawl - just, at this point, there will be bursts. The critical line is when these crackpot authoritarians decide it's time for yet more flexings to make examples of yet more people. There isn't going to be a dam burst, or a sudden turn - this is going to be a slow, agonizing process barring some stroke of good fortune with moments where things stagger, loose momentum, then start hobbling along again. I've never been someone to claim one midterm cycle fixes everything - we are in a very deep hole that's been dug for decades, and it will take a comparable effort to get ourselves out.
They can state this is the new normal all they want, but how the hell are they actually going to enforce it when they've staffed themselves with nothing but political cronies? When they think shouting at the media ticks the 'appeal to the public' box? Things are different. We're a different country now, especially now that all they do to appeal to people is to scare them, and all the charm from even the Obama era has been thrown out the window as inconvenient. We aren't going back to any kind of normal we've known at this point - this will flare to some kind of confrontation.
It's going to escalate until it can't, and what's going to accelerate things is all the damage that's been done to society over the past year and a half. Loss of societal trust is a big one, and it's the most tragic one. I've felt ever since the election that the powers-that-be have decided to basically punish the people at large for daring to attempt to embrace populism, and I'm betting long term that will be what leads to their downfall.
Long term. This isn't happening fast.
I think this confrontation is coming sooner than people think. The foundations are already being laid. City, county and even some state governments will simply refuse to acknowledge federal authority, as some already have. Eventually every jurisdiction will be forced to choose a side. At some point the federal (or in some cases state) government will try to impose it's will by force and there will be armed stand-offs between local law enforcement and federal agencies. The military may get involved. Local militias will get involved. The ugliest game of chicken will ensue. At some point foreign powers may try to take advantage of our divisions and either invade for some trumped up reason or influence one side or the other to their advantage (as they already are, most likely).
Nah, it'll accelerate once hard balkanization occurs. Soft Balkanization is already occurring. At least I'm in the right place for that inevitability.