Doubtful. It's saber-rattling. Same with the constant scramble of the airforces, same with the provoking in the South China Sea. Taiwan is in a good position where if China does try any shit they have 2 strategic assets
Treaties with Japan, Philippines and SK. This might not sound like alot but the fact that Japan and SK have ramped up aircraft carrier production to meet China's isn't a coincidence. You might think that these countries would do nothing if Taiwan was attacked, but they know that it's the first domino.
Probably the most important is TSMC, or a multinational superconductor company. If Taiwan stops supplying China with Super conductors, which is responsible for manufacturing a 3rd of in the world, suddenly electronic factories in China stop, local consumers can't by anything new and as a result blame their government.
The fact that Taiwan has also stepped up local arm production to not rely anymore on American arms-deals goes to show the shift in focus of everyone relying on America and instead needing to fend for themselves. Taiwan has friends, they have to pretend it doesn't exist though for it to exist.
Biden has also been surprising solid on Taiwan, as well as a lot of trade leaving China for other nations (not entirely Biden’s doing, a lot of companies are leaving because they are sick of having their shit stolen). And I know Bannon has been making the same point about chips and saying it may be the thing that would actually make the elite put up a fight.
Additionally, Xi has started to crack down on foreign investment due to pressure from the more traditionally Communist wing of the party, and it’s actually starting to get the attention of investors like Bloomberg, to the point they are finally starting to say “Hey, wait a minute. Maybe it isnt such a good idea to invest in China.”
We have also started seeing a lout of countries moving from the China to USA camp, if for no other reason than “You may be in the grip of retardation right now, but there is at least a chance you will change back. And China is clearly evil.”
And this is before we get into the fact that there is a fair amount of evidence to suggest the Chinese military is a paper tiger using old Soviet tricks to make themselves look tougher than they actually are.
Taiwan’s 2019 National Defense Strategy made some formal motions towards the strategy I discussed a few paragraphs ago, endorsing a conceptual shift from a decisive fight on the berm towards a posture which allows for a more multi-layered defense. The problem is that the ROC Army is not training for this. Or at least they weren’t in December 2019, when I last asked Taiwanese soldiers if they had ever trained in the tactics of a coordinated, fighting retreat or in using land based platforms to hit targets in the near littoral. The sad truth is that the ROC Army has trouble with training across the board. I have met artillery observers who never seen their own mortars fired, and shared drinks with an infantry officer who traveled to Thailand on his own dime to get basic TCCC training his own military did not offer. Those were professional soldiers; the situation with the conscripts is worse.
When people outside of Taiwan talk about the problem with the conscript system, they tend to focus on its dwindling size.[8] Yes, the inability of the ROC military, especially the Army, to fill its own ranks is a problem. But the trash they fill it with is an even larger one. I would ask ex-conscripts questions like, “Would you know how to find cover if you were ambushed?”, “Were you ever trained on how to move around if the other side controlled the skies?”, “Were you ever taught what to do if the guy next to you was shot in the arm?,” “Did they ever tell you anything about the weapons, organization, or tactics of the PLA?” or “Did they teach you how to get from point A to point B without cell service, you know, using a map?” Negatives across the board. What they could tell me were stories of officers communicating orders through Whatsapp, time spent learning Army songs and doing yard-work instead of on maneuver drills, and how the totality of their marksmanship training consisted of firing one magazine from a single (prone) position on some eight to ten occasions.
One reason for the lax training is a shortage of supplies. The ROC Army has a shortage of bullets. Again and again I was told stories of officers who would fake training exercises in order to save on spare parts. [9] Han Kuang is a joke put on for propaganda purposes, not serious training. The military is risk adverse; real training might lead to training accidents, and a series of high profile accidents that led to unnecessary deaths has led them to soften training for the entire force. While reservist weapons stores are scattered across Taiwan, the million reservists that are supposed to use them are not drilled. Official reservists reported to me that they have no idea what they are supposed to do if ever actually called up. These troops exist only on paper. The problem is broader: the Taiwanese population is not seriously trained or mentally prepared for conflict. Nor do they take care of their soldiers. A military career is a low status profession (“好 鐵 不 打 釘….”). Military pensions were just slashed; military basing often does not provide housing for family members. Unlike service in the U.S. military, service in the Taiwanese military rarely provides marketable skills that can be used in different career fields. Most of Taiwan’s best minds flee service altogether. Officers willing to challenge outmoded tactics, or who study abroad in an attempt to learn from foreign militaries, are seen as a threat by the upper brass and side-lined.
Not all of the ROC Armed Forces fare so bad. The ROC Air Force, in particular, is highly esteemed by those who work with it, and their pilots are trained in the United States. The real stinker is the Army. The trouble is that this worst branch of the ROC Armed Forces is precisely the branch the population of Taiwan has the most exposure to. The vast majority of conscripts serve in the Army. Many enter the Army excited, hoping they might serve their country, or barring that at least become tougher men. Their disappointment is captured by the comic I have placed at the beginning of this piece. The first panel reads, “What I assumed military service would be like.” The second reads, “the reality.” This reality is demoralizing. Of the two dozen ex-conscripts I interviewed last year, only one was more confident in Taiwan’s ability to resist China after going through the conscript system. Most left their service more cynical and defeatist than when they entered it. I will go out on a limb: the greatest danger to the security of Taiwan is not the PLA Navy or Rocket Force, but Taiwan’s own demoralizing system of national service.
I am not denying that the Taiwanese military is garbage. I am saying that the Chinese military, after you look past their face, aint much better. You have officers who are in charge through corruption or party loyalty, which is the sort of situation that lead to the Soviets getting spanked on by the equally underequipped and outdated Finnish military.
You have Chinese soldiers who dont believe in their own abilities, but hide it out of fear. I remember a post made on the Chinese Twitter equivalent, where they were all getting hyped up and talking about the glory of taking over Taiwan. Then on soldier got the nerve to pipe up and say something to the effect of "While I dont doubt we would do it, is it possible we have a little more time to train? you know, just to be sure." Que the overall commander of the Chinese military coming in to tell him "If you ever say anything like that to disrupt morale again, I will ensure you are in the first wave with the commandos attacking the bunkers, and if you show any cowardice I will shoot you myself." Because history shows that forced soldiers do spectacular jobs in warfare and totally dont cut and run the first opportunity they see.
There is also far more will to win against China than anything to do with Afghanistan. And that applies to a lot of the nations in the region, who woke up REAL fast when Hong Kong got steam rolled. The Kiwis will be a thorn in the side because they seem to still be backing China, and the Philippines is in a stalemate (Duterte is Pro-China, but most of the government and population is Pro-US). But Australia just kicked the Chinese out and took back a lot of their shit, Japan is talking about taking up the sword and reembracing Bushido, the S. Koreans are looking at carriers and going "Where can we get one of those?", and India is ready to go screaming over the mountains to dish out of revenge on China. This wont be a nearly one-sided affair like Afghanistan was.
Maybe I am wrong. Maybe Taiwan is Kill. But I am not so blackpilled on the situation, and I think that it is still a war we can win. It just that now there may BE a war when we could have avoided it before.
Doubtful. It's saber-rattling. Same with the constant scramble of the airforces, same with the provoking in the South China Sea. Taiwan is in a good position where if China does try any shit they have 2 strategic assets
The fact that Taiwan has also stepped up local arm production to not rely anymore on American arms-deals goes to show the shift in focus of everyone relying on America and instead needing to fend for themselves. Taiwan has friends, they have to pretend it doesn't exist though for it to exist.
Biden has also been surprising solid on Taiwan, as well as a lot of trade leaving China for other nations (not entirely Biden’s doing, a lot of companies are leaving because they are sick of having their shit stolen). And I know Bannon has been making the same point about chips and saying it may be the thing that would actually make the elite put up a fight.
Additionally, Xi has started to crack down on foreign investment due to pressure from the more traditionally Communist wing of the party, and it’s actually starting to get the attention of investors like Bloomberg, to the point they are finally starting to say “Hey, wait a minute. Maybe it isnt such a good idea to invest in China.”
We have also started seeing a lout of countries moving from the China to USA camp, if for no other reason than “You may be in the grip of retardation right now, but there is at least a chance you will change back. And China is clearly evil.”
And this is before we get into the fact that there is a fair amount of evidence to suggest the Chinese military is a paper tiger using old Soviet tricks to make themselves look tougher than they actually are.
I am not denying that the Taiwanese military is garbage. I am saying that the Chinese military, after you look past their face, aint much better. You have officers who are in charge through corruption or party loyalty, which is the sort of situation that lead to the Soviets getting spanked on by the equally underequipped and outdated Finnish military.
You have Chinese soldiers who dont believe in their own abilities, but hide it out of fear. I remember a post made on the Chinese Twitter equivalent, where they were all getting hyped up and talking about the glory of taking over Taiwan. Then on soldier got the nerve to pipe up and say something to the effect of "While I dont doubt we would do it, is it possible we have a little more time to train? you know, just to be sure." Que the overall commander of the Chinese military coming in to tell him "If you ever say anything like that to disrupt morale again, I will ensure you are in the first wave with the commandos attacking the bunkers, and if you show any cowardice I will shoot you myself." Because history shows that forced soldiers do spectacular jobs in warfare and totally dont cut and run the first opportunity they see.
There is also far more will to win against China than anything to do with Afghanistan. And that applies to a lot of the nations in the region, who woke up REAL fast when Hong Kong got steam rolled. The Kiwis will be a thorn in the side because they seem to still be backing China, and the Philippines is in a stalemate (Duterte is Pro-China, but most of the government and population is Pro-US). But Australia just kicked the Chinese out and took back a lot of their shit, Japan is talking about taking up the sword and reembracing Bushido, the S. Koreans are looking at carriers and going "Where can we get one of those?", and India is ready to go screaming over the mountains to dish out of revenge on China. This wont be a nearly one-sided affair like Afghanistan was.
Maybe I am wrong. Maybe Taiwan is Kill. But I am not so blackpilled on the situation, and I think that it is still a war we can win. It just that now there may BE a war when we could have avoided it before.
The biggest problem for Taiwan wold be that it is thoroughly penetrated with agents of the PRC.
I would not be surprised if half of tis generals and pilots were PRC agents.
How could it be otherwise?