I don't think Lincoln had bad or progressive intentions but his actions set the precedent for big government and the sovereignty of Washington DC over the states. With a federation of independent states and strong militias, progressivism still would have infected the big states with large immigrant populations, while other states would've rejected those ideas and had the courage to say no to federal interference. The federal reserve would have been rejected or tossed already. (as it had been before) We probably would not have gotten involved in either world war. (though a different world war might have played out eventually)