Your argument, and by extension Foletado's argument, it that the unanswered population accounts for the discrepancy between the Census and FEC vote totals. For that to be true to be true there would have to be a large spike in unanswered population relative to total votes from 2016 to 2020. Since there is not then there is reasonable evidence that the excess FEC vote totals are fraudulent, phantom voters, as the democrats are unlikely to waste time faking those Census statistics.
For that to be true to be true there would have to be a large spike in unanswered population relative to total votes from 2016 to 2020
Not necessarily. As far as mathematical trend would go, yes. But future trends are only predictions. They do not always equate to reality. It can't necessarily be assumed that the increased voter count will be directly correlated to the frequency of them answering a question about whether or not they voted.
A potential explanation could be that more people were genuinely enthusiastic about voting than in years past, thus could potentially explain how more people answered the question about whether or not they voted. It's a plausible scenario.
In any case, there is a volume of the population that declined the answer the question of whether or not they voted. They cannot be assumed to have definitely not voted no matter what the prior year's statistics were.
In any case, there is a volume of the population that declined the answer the question of whether or not they voted. They cannot be assumed to have definitely not voted no matter what the prior year's statistics were.
Nor can they be assumed to have voted, as you are doing. The most likely scenario is that the is no significant change in the ratios of voters to non voters in the unanswered population.
No data for that before 2012, as far as i can tell.
year, unanswered, %census, %FEC
2012: 27,601 20.76% 21.38%
2016: 32,662 23.75% 23.90%
2020: 36,404 23.54% 22.99%
Note that the number of unanswered decreases relative to the number of votes from 2016 to 2020.
The number of people that did not answer is uncorrelated to the Census-FEC number.
Okay, so, what's the point then? Why does the data have to be the same each year?
Your argument, and by extension Foletado's argument, it that the unanswered population accounts for the discrepancy between the Census and FEC vote totals. For that to be true to be true there would have to be a large spike in unanswered population relative to total votes from 2016 to 2020. Since there is not then there is reasonable evidence that the excess FEC vote totals are fraudulent, phantom voters, as the democrats are unlikely to waste time faking those Census statistics.
Not necessarily. As far as mathematical trend would go, yes. But future trends are only predictions. They do not always equate to reality. It can't necessarily be assumed that the increased voter count will be directly correlated to the frequency of them answering a question about whether or not they voted.
A potential explanation could be that more people were genuinely enthusiastic about voting than in years past, thus could potentially explain how more people answered the question about whether or not they voted. It's a plausible scenario.
In any case, there is a volume of the population that declined the answer the question of whether or not they voted. They cannot be assumed to have definitely not voted no matter what the prior year's statistics were.
Nor can they be assumed to have voted, as you are doing. The most likely scenario is that the is no significant change in the ratios of voters to non voters in the unanswered population.