Sometime yesterdayish the Iranians decided to pull an Oceans 11 on an Oil Tanker and were successful. Obviously the tanker, her cargo, and her crew, will be held in Iran for the time being in order to extract concessions from the West.

How successful they will be is another story, this has happened in the recent past and the result is usually the safe return of the crew and the confiscation of the tanker and cargo by the Iranian government.

However, the reason I made this post was not to shed light on a minor kidnapping on international waters, but the US response.

Flipping quickly back a bit, the post WW2 world was predicated on the fact that the US Navy was going to guarantee global trade for the trade off of security concessions, especially regarding the Soviets and curtailing their geopolitical objectives were possible. This agreement remained after the fall of the USSR, but has gradually fallen apart, accelerating in the past few years.

Which brings me to today. In response to the High Seas Heist the US Navy responded with (drum roll) A strongly worded letter!

Obviously the Iranians brought this letter to their mother, and she made them all apologize for being poo-heads.

Back in reality, this letter does nothing other than underscore the continuation of the US Navy's unwillingness (or inability) to patrol international sea lanes, even when the cargo is bound for an American port.

Now this doesn't mean that America will suffer because it lost one oil tanker, far from it. The US has enough domestic production (still, may change the longer Biden is in office) to supply itself. Middle East oil is typically meant for America's allies in Europe and Asia. And while this tanker was not bound for those markets, those countries in Europe and Asia are sure going to take notice.

Should this continue to be a thing and grow, meaning the Iranians decided to effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the markets in Europe and Asia would effectively collapse. The only country that could keep that Strait open with minimal cost is the USA. No other country, besides maybe France, has a Navy strong enough.

That's a pretty big hypothetical however, and one with big costs to Iran. It also assumes that the US Navy would be completely unwilling to intervene, which I would heavily doubt.

However, this nightmare scenario does keep a few leaders awake at night, in Asia especially where reliance on ME oil is necessary to keep the lights on. Without the US Navy, the major Navies of Asia (Japan, China) who have little presence in the area, would be forced to pick up the slack, which none of them seem willing or able to do besides small skirmishes along the Somali coast.

Eventually Iran will take a bite that it can't chew. At that point the US Navy will be at a crossroads. Intervene and continue to be the security guarantor, or let it slide and let another pillar of the American-led West crumble.

Associated article: https://nypost.com/2023/04/27/iran-seizes-oil-tanker-in-international-waters/

Yesterday, the Chinese unveiled their Type 003 Aircraft Carrier. Named after the province directly across the from Taiwan, Fujian, the aircraft carrier represents a milestone for Chinese shipbuilding. The Type 3 is roughly the size of America's Nimitz carriers. The Type 003 is said to use EMALS to launch aircraft instead of the Ski Jump, which was used for the Type 001 and 002 carriers. This upgrade is a major technological advancement for the Chinese, as they basically leap-frogged over steam catapults. China is expected to outfit the Fujian with J-35 stealth fighter and newer versions of the J-15, as well as a compliment of reconnaissance planes and unmanned drones. The Fujian is said to be Diesel-powered, with plans to turn the future Type 004's nuclear.

Not much is officially available on the Fujian, so details can and probably will change. For now, given access to what info I have, those are what I consider to be the best estimates.

What does this all mean??

Ultimately, it represents an expansion of China's naval power. The previous two aircraft carriers created by China are smaller, the Type 001 being bought from Ukraine in '98 and the Type 002 being a Chinese recreation of the 001. Type 001 will never be more than a training ship, and the Type 002 will most likely get regulated to a training role as well, as China builds their Type 004s in the next decade. The major story here is that China was able to leapfrog from Ski Ramps to electro-magnetic catapults. As China perfects it's pilot training, the lessons learned on the Fujian will most certainly be used for future Type 004 carriers (and later Type 005's).

Still outclassed by the American Carriers, China's "Fujian" is a step in consolidating it's power and control over each China Sea, and more importantly, could be used to project Chinese power down into the Malacca Strait. The Fujian outclasses it's regional rival Japan, with Japan's "helicopter" carriers only holding 25 planes each. The Fujian is said to hold up to 70. When the Fujian goes operational, it'll cement China's regional superpower status, as no other neighboring country will have comparable ship size and naval strength to curb Chinese ambitions.

However, while the Fujian has proven to float. It is still about 2-3 years from becoming operational. While an impressive technological feat, China still has to train the pilots and seaman to crew these ships. Aircraft carriers are a relatively new field in Chinese Military History. America and other countries enjoy an almost 100 year head start in Aircraft Carrier logistics and operations. That is a huge advantage that the Chinese can't bridge over with pure technology. With time and effort, just like every nation, the Chinese will grow we've develop their own doctrine. And if allowed that time, we may see a PLAN that rivals the USN. But that remains to be seen, and how antsy the CCP is for Taiwanese dumplings.

Given the name "Fujian", if I were in Taiwan, my butt cheeks would be clenched a little tighter.

Good morning! It's a beautiful day today, so I wanted to keep the good vibes going for all of you by bringing up a topic that will end up being a lovely and lively conversation about our favorite most forgotten capital of a country that has occupied a gray area for the better part of 80 years. Taiwan!

This is sure to start off with good news.

For the past few years China has been doing the "un-China" thing by being overtly aggressive towards Taiwan. The progression has been a bit natural, first claim the waters around Taiwan (and neighbors), then claim the air, and next is to claim the ground. Technically this has already happened, with the PRC claiming Taiwan since it consolidated control of the mainland bank in the 40s. However to add to the fun, Taiwan also claims mainland China, so two governments actively claim the land the other is sitting on. This is a fun recipe for conflict.

The only thing that was stopping either side from enacting out it's respective holy missions of conquest on each other was that neither side could do anything about the other. China, with the power of boots on the ground, could never quite master the water well enough for an amphibious assault. And Taiwan doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of conquering the mainland without massive direct support unseen in the world since WW2.

Let's bring ourselves to today. China's navy has been increasingly capable of getting control of the sea on it's shores, and the seas of is neighbors. Without Japan as a natural check to China, smaller countries (with smaller navies) must abide by China's claims (even though they hate it) because they cannot do anything about it. China has essentially bullied Taiwan with the line "if you don't like it, then do something about it" multiple times. And Taiwan basically has to accept it because it "can't do anything about it" (without sparking a much larger conflict that is "backer" wants no part of, more on that coming up!).

Reason being, Taiwan is rightfully unsure just how committed the US is to responding to Taiwan should China attack, and there's no chance for Taiwan should the Americans not arrive, or fail to arrive in force. Under Trump there was a more robust arms trade and training in place, but under Biden it's been one disaster after another.

Biden's first act in regards to Taiwan was to sell them a Coast Guard Navy Cutter more in line with search and rescue rather than the respond to the request of Fast Attack Craft. Biden later authorized a disastrous War Games exercise in the area where the Attack Team destroyed the Defend team each time, leading to senior military commanders privately expressing that under current military conditions the US would not be able to save Taiwan from invasion.

And this isn't lost to the Chinese. For the past few decades they've built an impressive spy network that's firmly rooted in the US government. And for years the Chinese have taken the information they've gained and used it to navigate and create new ways around American weapons systems. Namely the hypersonic missile. Now the Chinese claim they can make certain backbone American aircraft completely obsolete with their new stock of missiles, and they just might be able to, but what we do know for sure is that their anti-ship missiles can make a 1000-mile no ship zone off the Chinese shore, which jeopardizes not only American movements in the area, but also Korean and Japanese.

However, the biggest hammer to drop is Ukraine. China is watching and studying the West's response to Ukraine, and in a word, they find it emboldening. The CCP has started advising party leaders to divest themselves from owning American assets in an effort to insulate themselves from American sanctions. They've created a strategic partnership with Russia (and indirectly India, of all places), and they reactivated N.Korea to be the American's gadfly once again. China has seen that the western response to Russia has been TikTok dance videos and social media outrage. More substantially however, how America emptied out it's arms reserves to fight Russia, leaving next to nothing for Taiwan.

Because China is banking on two things. 1 is that Americans rely too much on things made in China to substantially sanction away all things Chinese and 2 the American political class relies on China way too much for it to substantially support Taiwan in any capacity.

Should the Americans sanction China completely, China expects American domestic outrage would peak as shortages hit everything from smart phones to cars to everyday lifestyle devices. This hits the American political class directly, as more wealthy Americans get outraged that they can't download the latest peloton app or get the coffee they like from Starbucks. Political leaders would buckle under the pressure, unlike with Russia, were the biggest effect there was only food prices/cost of farming skyrocketing. This is not even considering the amount of American politicians (Democrats) that have compromising ties to China through family member's business dealings and the politicians (Democrats) that can't seem to keep their dick out of Chinese Spy's pussies.

(I say the food bit only because the current ruling class firmly believes that food is created at the grocery store and not at a farm, unless it's a 1 acre 100% naturally organic tomato and narcotic farm stand on Long Island.)

Now I'm not in the game of predictions, but if I was a betting man, I'd say we'll see some major military action out of China within the next 3 years. The big "if" will be the Americans response, and I think in China's case, sooner is better than later. We'll see if they agree.

Good luck out there kiddos.

Crank up the Poima, break out the vodka, and polish your Kalashnikov! Papa Putin wants us to vacation on the Kyivs'ke Reservoir!

Seriously though, there's reason to shudder if your a Ukrainian. The prospect of the Russian military invasion is a very real concern. The prospect of Ukraine "going alone" against Russia is also a very real concern. If you are American, you might also have the concern that your president is going to get involved in another military conflict on the other side of the world.

I'm going to touch on a few points here and try to give as unbiased, "geo-politically-buzzword-sounding" hot take on Ukraine and Russia that I can. Then I'm going to give you my sports-bet level prediction on what's going to go down. Ready? I hope so!

First off, some Ukrainian history. Ukraine for a while wasn't exactly what I would call a country, it was more of a buffer zone that neither NATO/EU or the newly formed Russia wanted (or could) deal with. No true national identity, large population of ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians (both of which were more loyal to Moscow than Kiev), rife with corruption, and weak militarily. Ukraine, for a time, just kind of existed. Then the pro-west Euromaidan protests happened and then-president of Ukraine Yanukovych killed a few thousand of said protesters, setting off a chain of events that led to Yanukovych's ousting, Russians annexing the Crimea, and the start of the Donbas war in Donetsk and Luhansk.

These actions have created a national identity for the Ukrainians and consolidated the majority of the population (Russian-speaking Ukrainian and ethnic Russian living in Ukraine alike) to be at the very least anti-Moscow. Keep this in mind as this formation of a national identity in Ukraine is troublesome for Russian prospects in the area in that a Russian occupation just went from "greeted as liberators" to "God I hope that's just a shoe they are throwing at me".

Now, some Russian History. Did you know that in the past 200 years Russia has faced three major invasions from the same spot? Sure they beat back each one, but at major cost to themselves. At one point the Russians got tired of this and broke out a map and saw something a little disquieting. Russia's borders are fucking hell to defend. Especially the part of Russia that holds the most people. This area is known in geographic circles as the Great European Plain. A geographic feature that starts in North France, extends east through Germany, Poland, Belarus, and empties out into Russia, only to stop at the Ural mountains. There is precious little in the way of major geographic boundaries. Which in this context means that there is precious little to stop an army of desperate Frenchmen or Germans (or Mongols, or Huns, or Turks, or Muslims, or just about anyone with a few hundred men and horses really...) from making headway into your country and causing some unsanctioned chaos. So, back to those Russian generals looking at maps. One of them must of saw a map of Europe, saw the Carpathians, and from that day on, the Russians have dreamed of a Carpathian shield.

For reference, the Carpathians would act as a natural border protecting Russia and forcing any army coming from the west to march through Poland or up through the Bessarabian gap in Romania. Looking at a map you could draw a line starting at the Black Sea, through the Bessarabian gap, kicking North-North West at the Carpathians until you get parallel with the Vistula river, then follow the river north to the Baltic. This would be Russia's "ideal" border, at least in my opinion. Russia's already partly there. Crimea anchors Russia firmly in the Black Sea, further pushes into Ukraine gets Russia close or on the Carpathians. Moldova is basically a Russian colony, which gets the Russians close to the Bessarabian gap. To the north, Belarus is pretty much a Russian colony as well, and Kaliningrad anchors Russia on the Baltic. There's plenty of flies in the ointment there, but you get what I'm saying. Russia wants (needs) defensible borders to it's west, and the ones they have now are anything but.

Anyways, let's not get to bogged down on geographics, and get more to the explosions!

The reason I'm boring you with geographics though, is that I'm hoping you will see Russia's motivation here. 3 major invasions in 200 years from the same damn place will shape your national strategy a bit. And Ukraine, with all it's potential at being a breadbasket and a defensible foothold, is a very lofty goal for Russian interests.

So with that in mind, let's break this down by playing a game of Geopolitical "The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly"

The Good:

Russian forces have been busy lately. From unrest in oil-rich Kazakhstan to patrol duty along the Ukrainian border. This means that if your a PMC or a mercenary looking for money, there's some opportunity out there for you if Russian winters are your thing.

Russia shouldn't expect direct interference from the west (possibly). Biden is not known utilizing the strength of the US armed forces, and pretty much everyone, from allies to competitors, knows that US involvement in the broader world is dwindling. If the war doesn't threaten international trade routes in any meaningful way, the US (should not) will not participate in any meaningful way. This is of course assuming that Biden's mental capacity is clear and understandable. Given that he's taken to openly insulting American reporters during press conferences, randomly babbles about computers and toasters, has a son that's at best a national security risk, and falls asleep during international summits, a good deal of this may be debatable. Either way, my expectations of US involvement start at arms deals and end at drone attacks and special ops, which has been in line with American foreign policy now for the past few years.

Should Russia get into a war with Ukraine, Russia will win easily, but the Ukrainians will make them bleed for it. On top of invading Ukraine, Russia will also need to occupy Ukraine. With the aforementioned Ukrainian national identity and the decidedly anti-Moscow sentiment, Russia could be seeing a repeat of it's Afghanistan War as the Americans fund rebel groups to fight the Russians. (Russia likes tanks, American's like supplying Javelins) this will ultimately be good for the west but bad for Russia, possibly even ugly, but more on that later.

For the west, a Russian invasion will be a great chance to bottle up Russian forces and direct Russian attention there, rather on it's energy sector, which Russia has been using to extract concessions from the EU. This is assuming Putin can't multitask, and given that Russia's every sector is just about Russia's only bright spot, I don't think Putin will let up on using the Russian energy market to extract concessions from Western Europe. However, this is something I've heard from time to time and as stupid as it sounds to me, it's worth mentioning that there is a possibility of the west extracting concessions from Russia as it tries to secure it's hold on Ukraine.

The Bad:

For the Ukrainians, the bad is obvious. Your country gets invaded, lots of death and destruction bordering on Ugly, and there isn't much you can do. Your armed forces have gotten better, especially your veteran forces and their commanders who have gotten some real war experience the past few years, but they aren't enough. The US is very unlikely to send any sizable detachment of troops your way, and the rest of Europe will follow suite. Should Putin invade, it's a matter of time before the Russians reach Kiev. It's unfortunate to say, but I believe the days of Ukraine being at least an independent country are numbered.

For the Americans, inaction here in Ukraine will likely spawn headaches elsewhere in the world (Taiwan). Allies will be looking on to see how much force we will be willing to commit to and (hopefully) adjust (Germany). The countries that don't adjust (Germany, Baltic states) will likely find themselves brokering very Pro-Russia security agreements very soon. China will be doing the same as our allies, as well as keeping a close eye on our arms deals, because whatever we sell to the Ukrainians we will be selling to the Taiwanese as well.

The Ugly:

For the Russians, a Ukrainian invasion and occupation has the very real possiblity of hollowing out its younger generations. Russian demographics the past 100 years are horrible. Between world wars, genocide, economic stagnation and collapse, widespread heart disease, widespread alcohol/drug abuse, and waning birth rates, Russia's demographic 'pyramid' looks more like a Jenga tower with a few blocks missing. For every soldier that Russia loses somewhere, whether in Kazakhstan or Ukraine, it'll be increasingly difficult for Russia to replace that casualty as the years go by. The more Russian troops in different places, the more casualties, and that will all add up to a point where Russia will not be able to adequately reinforce their troops, and as a result, the less Russia will be able to defend itself. However, Russia has to be aggressive and get into these conflicts. Because if it doesn't, Russia's current border is already indefensible and Russian demographics are already so bad that if Russia were to do nothing at all, it would doom itself as a nation. So Russia must invoke it's inner Catherine the Great and expand, which might spell the death of Russia as we know it. Or Russia can do nothing, which might spell the death of Russia as we know it.

Not a great position to be in.

Big picture, this is all happening under the backdrop of a decreased American presence in the world. If this has happened in the 1990s or 2000s, we would possibly see large-scale military action taken by the Americans. The general trend the past few decades however has seen an increasingly isolationist America. Should the Russians invade, it'll be the first true test of just how isolationist the Americans now are, and what we can expect from the Americans on the world-stage moving into the future.

However, this does provide an opportunity to keep Russia bottled up in Ukraine. The Americans can bleed the Russians out like in the Russian-Afghanistan war and truly remove Russia as a Geopolitical rival for at least a century. It's never great to turn someone's backyard into a warzone, but the Americans have so little economic, empathetic, and cultural interest in Ukraine (even less so than the middle east I'd argue) that I'm pretty sure that they wouldn't mind having Ukraine suffer in order to hurt Russia.

Ultimately, my gut feeling is that Putin is smart. He knows that a war gone hot attracts lots of attention and has a messy way of spinning out of control. Instead of going for an American style invasion and occupation, I can see Russia utilizing domestic unrest and Russian minorities in Ukraine to systematically takeover administrative control over larger and larger parts of Ukraine. I do think that Putin has a goal in mind for where the Russian border should be, and has plans in place to at least secure that area for Russian interests. Russian demographics are very weak, so Russia is stuck in a situation of Geopolitical "damned if you do, damned if you don't". As long as Russia has someone like Putin leading the country, I'm confident that Russia will be able to navigate through this. Lord help whomever comes after him however, as running Russia is not an easy job.

That was four or five days ago, man

So like, this whole Afghanistan thing happened or something. And it's been pretty ridiculous. Any one with two brain cells could have told you that Ashraf Ghani and Kabul had no chance of keeping Afghanistan together. Same was true in 2016, 2012, 2008...

"So like, why ridiculous if you do expertly predicted this while you were a 3 year old pooping your pants, bruh?"

Because of just how bad the Americans fucked the pig. The "Vegas" expectation was that Kabul would last maybe half a year before getting overrun by angry traditionalists. The expectation was that if the Americans withdrew, they'd be at least kind enough to knock down the house and roll up the welcome mat. The expectations turned out ridiculously off, and now we have angry well-paid, armed, and motivated tribesmen knocking down the palace doors in under 2 weeks. So WTF happened?

The biggest spill on the floor is the disconnect from the "upper-intelligence" community to the actual reality on the ground. And can you blame them? They are busy trying to catch domestic super-terrorists building the US Capital out of Lego blocks.

To misjudge the situation so poorly has truly been a hallmark of the American occupation of Afghanistan. After 20 years of (money-laundering) war, no major objectives were met. The Afghan-American government consistently showed low support numbers every year. The Afghan army was, there's no good way to put this, a joke, in a word. To allow so much American military equipment to remain in the country after withdrawing is absolutely poor judgement. There was no world were drones, guns, and other various hardware was not going to fall into Taliban hands, should you just leave them there.

Now we get wonderful visuals of Taliban men with premier guns and equipment, using them in the ways that only Afghan tribesmen know. However, I'm more concerned about China, Russia, and Iran's "piqued" interest.

This has been a somewhat of a win for all three.

For Russia, it's kind of a "ha-ha" Nelson moment. After their disastrous 80s invasion to help prop up a much hated socialist government (Hey, I've heard this one before!) it's always been something of a bruise to the Russians. After the Russians left, there was a big "why bother" sign over Afghanistan. 20 years later, Americans make the same blunder, and Russia has been looking expectedly since.

Other than that, Russia will attempt to get some American military hardware back-channel wise, but there's no love between the two countries. The Taliban is just as wary of Russians as they are Americans. But when it comes time to "arming your army" pilfered weapon supplies only last so long. The next best place besides America to purchase your weaponry is Russia. So if they start making deals, you can expect to see some American goods make their way into Russia for some good old R&D.

For China, the immediate good news is that the Americans are off their (far-flung, nearly endless expanse of desert and Muslims) frontier border. The even better good news is that Afghanistan is now open to Chinese predilections, and the new Afghan boss(es) is/are kinda open to that. This provides many an opportunity for the Belt and Road initiative, not to mention the rare-Earth metals. China is also hoping to sell some weapons, as it is finding it's military hardware buyer list to be very very short as of lately.

You'll be seeing China getting more involved in Afghanistan for sure. How popular they'll end up being is something to keep an eye on. The CCP's history towards Muslims isn't a good one, but the Taliban just might not care that much for Uighurs. My expectation is that China will be attempting to build a highway through Afghanistan in the near future, with more infrastructure being put in place judging on it's merits. Who knows if roving bands of Taliban highway pirates will become a thing, but God-damn I hope so.

For Iran, the Americans are off their eastern (sparsely populated, desert, wasteland) doorstep, which kinda lets some pressure (and open new (smuggling) trade routes (parentheses in a parentheses? God-damn dude)) off of Tehran. The biggest win here is that China is only a hop, skip, and several large deserts away now. And if China decides to setup some infrastructure to stronger connect the two countries, Iran can get some more relief from American sanctions. This all heavily relies on China however, with Iran merely waiting around till it happens.

Otherwise, big morale win for Tehran as well. Like Russia in some ways, distinctly Persian in others. Tehran had more of a vested interest to see America lose than Russia. An American aligned Iraq and Afghanistan would have locked Iran in at both sides, leaving the Persians stuck in the middle while it's enemy occupied it's old empire. Incomprehensible for Tehran, and unallowable. So naturally Iranian training and operatives found their way into Afghanistan and they did what they do best, foment and instigate. With the Americans gone and the Taliban holding on to some excess American hardware, you can definitely expect Iran to pick some of that shit up and R&D the fuck out of it.

The common thread between these the countries will be their ability to get their hands on American military tech. How they'll apply what they learn will be anyone's guess, but for now, they'll be treating the Afghans to quite a few fancy dinners.

And that's about all she wrote for Afghanistan and America. Biden, under pressure, might do something very stupid (it's expected) bit the long term outlook is that the Americans complete it's withdrawal and remove itself largely from the area. American political will for the Afghan-country-building-sim was non-existent for at least a decade now, bit a combo between media and government silence on the matter kept most Americans from even realizing there is a place called Afghanistan. This allowed for some pretty heavy corruption and the typical lining of pockets. With that window of opportunity closed, I would expect some other to open, worryingly, more domestic.

With the American federal government focus off of Afghanistan, and with federal narcissism at an all time high. I could see something like a "reconstruction 2.0" happening.

As for our international standing? I'd be a tad bit worried of I was an American ally. If you are GB or France, you have to be looking at the inability of American troops to evacuate, or at least guarantee the safety of American assets with a bit of worry. More often than not what gets lost in the ME gets used somewhere in Europe. For the Americans to lose that much equipment, and will be facing the most minimal of consequences for doing so, shows a level of apathy towards the old alliance.

This isn't alliance breaking, and I wouldn't say that "if you are Europe, the Americans won't help you now". However, if I was a NATO country that has been lax on defense budgets, now may be a good time to reconsider that notion. Ukraine, Libya, Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. All were countries that the Americans attempted to impose some level of their order on and got repudiated. This recent track record is not great and if it wasn't for the sheer overall power of the Americans, both economically and in firepower, there would a reconsidering of allies.

However, no true red line has been crossed. Leaving the Afghans to their fates has no real worrying effects to tertiary allies in regions we don't really focus onnnnnnn... Of fuck there's a whole host of them in Asia and the Pacific.

Relatively quiet for now, American allies in the Pacific and SE Asia have been watching with angst at the American withdrawal. Separated by culture and indifference, many countries feel like the Americans coming in is nothing more than empty promises. The first to separate from the Americans, the Philippines, just recently finished kicking the Americans out of their old bases. Fluffier relations with China remain to be seen, but the direction towards the Chinese sphere is definitely mapped out.

The Philippines are possibly just the first and only, or are apart of a larger trend to gravitate to Beijing. Countries like Laos and Cambodia have fallen into the Chinese portfolio as well as Thailand's steady drift away from the Americans. At least in those countries, American presence doesn't feel as trusted as it once did.

Again these countries weren't primary allies or anything, but other countries have taken notice. Japan has restarted it's (aircraft carrier) "helicopter carrier" program. The Taiwanese air force is purchasing planes like it's going out of business. South Korea is boosting it's Navy ( in dual response to both China and Japan). The region is going into the future with a plan that the Americans aren't coming to help.

What does this mean for the future? Time will tell. Currently though, there's egg on America's face. It was bound to happen, but if there was better leadership (cough) the Americans could at least mitigated the damage to something not so... yolky. My money is on China making out like a bandit though, until those aforementioned Taliban road pirate gangs get their hands on some Mad Max props and remake one of my actual dreams.

So I haven't posted in a while (for the 2 people that cared) mostly because my favorite thing to talk about, geopolitics, moves at a snail's pace and has a nasty habit for doing what you don't want it to. I also hate the idea of regular updates (because I'm lazy) because it gets boring and tedious for both you and me. Not much has changed, but like a glacier about to slip, there's going to be some fast moves by the world's biggest players (boxing pun, sorry) and we are seeing the dominos getting lined up.

First up, the Chinese.

China has made it no secret that it feels that America is in a weak position. Just look at the constant military fly-bys on Taiwan, the rattling of sabers with Japan, the excursions of the Chinese Navy in the Indian ocean, and the mocking the American officials openly in Anchorage.

China of course has a long way to go to float a true blue water Navy capable of taking on/taking the responsibilities from the Americans. However, they do feel secure enough in its own regional Navy and defence network to keep the Americans 1000 miles away from Chinese shores.

This has a few implications. For starters, Taiwan, which has been a historical piece of (or more accurately, part of one of the many complicated empires that were in China) China, and it is looking mighty tasty right now. Obviously significantly weaker than it's PRC counterpart, the Republic's tiny air force has suffered from accidents and strain during the scrambles against the PLAAF, hobbling the tiny air force and wearing down the Taiwanese with each fly-by without dropping munitions.

China wants Taiwan for obvious reasons. Not even touching on the historical, Taiwan is the first chain in the ring of islands that sew in China's northern ports, ensuring any movement out of the East China and Yellow sea goes through hostile waters. This is a logistical nightmare should things go tits up and China recognizes that if it wants to play the big boy on the scene it's got to break up this natural defensive ring.

Biden's response has been to send a three-carrier strike force into the South China Sea to conduct war games, which the American team consistently lost. Almost as acceptance of this failure, Biden followed up with sending minor support to Taiwan's coast guard. Yeah. (Don't know how impactful that sounds to you, but I'm reaaaaally trying to put the emphasise on how stupid it is to send support to a coast guard and not something that can shoot down planes.) The general feeling in Taiwan is that the Americans aren't coming and that PRC control is inevitable.

Another implication is that China is increasingly pushing into the Indian ocean in preparation of securing it's trade routes to the Middle East. The traditional line of thinking was that a combined Indian-American Navy would be too intimidating for the Chinese to move into the area, however China has practically ignored both the Indians and Americans and has begun setting up "friendly" (parasitic) relations with the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Malaysia, and Madagascar. The idea being a ring of naval bases that will secure the Indian ocean and intimidate the Indians and Americans into doing nothing. So far China has been very successful on that, with the Biden administration only sending military advisors to the Maldives for a quick meet and greet, but with no permanent or future plans for the region.

Further, China is buying up massive amounts of farmland throughout SE Asia in order to secure food production throughout the region as a buffer against potential famine back at the homeland. The rate of farmland purchases has been so great that at this point Cambodia and Laos are practically Chinese, Thailand is pretty much Chinese, and with Vietnam the only hold out (The Vietnamese are saltier at the Chinese for their war with each other than the are at the Americans for the Vietnam war). However the current mood in Vietnam is that Chinese dominance in the region is inevitable.

Overall, China sees America as a weak, fading power with overpriced large toys that are perfect targets for China's new generation of missile tech (that the Americans have no counter for). Look for them to be increasingly aggressive and look for the Biden Adminstration to do very little, like supplying Boston Whalers with machine guns to Taiwan, despite high media fanfare that suggests that such small actions are diplomatic brilliance.

Next up, Russia.

Russia has been quiet, and that alone should be frightening. The Russians have been silently stockpiling arms and troops on the other side of the border with Ukraine, most likely to annex some new (Russian-majority) territory from Ukraine. This tracks with Russia's overall goal of border security, but more importantly Ukraine is a great area to grow food in, especially east Ukraine.

Overall Eastern Europe has been relegated to being the boring side of the world again, which works in Russia's favor. It's hard to predict what exactly the bear will do, but a few of my guesses for Russia revolve around their expansion into Western Europe's energy market.

Germany is an obvious start, as they are completely dependent on Russian energy exports thanks to the German fanaticism with green energy. Already we've seen a "defrosting" of relations between the two countries, which Russia has used the counter UK, French, and US interests throughout the region and the ME. This will only continue as American energy exports dwindle to the region. Berlin recognizes who keeps the homes warm in the winter, and as a NATO ally, it's typically the most tepid to respond to Russia. Expect this behavior to continue.

Eastern Europe is kind of hard to get into without writing a whole book on the subject, in this case however we can lump them all in, since they are all pretty much stuck in the same place, between Turkey and Russia. EE, like Germany, gets most of their energy exports from Russia. Unlike Germany though, many EE countries have sizable Russian populations in them. Russian populations that Russia likes to use. The result is a near constant fear that the Russian government will accuse you of abusing your Russian minority and in response will "annex" those areas. So far it's only happened in Ukraine, but the Baltic states, Moldova, and Romania all took notice of NATO's (The Americans) lack of action. Now that the VP of the guy that did nothing is now the President, EE has pretty much fallen in line with Russian interests.

Overall, don't expect big things from Russia, at most they'll be annexing some new borders in a few years. Putin is patient, and like China, he too views the Americans as weak and indecisive. He'll be taking advantage of the lack of focus on his frontier at some point and while the American public may not like it, their is very little the American government can do.

Next up, the Middle East.

The ME is where logic goes to die. The result of way too many regional powers propped up by way too many American and European leaders. The big four being Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iran, and Turkey. Each country wants to rule the region in their own way, and each countries interest is vastly different from the other. Turkey enjoys NATO protection, Saudi Arabia enjoys fucking everyone's shit up, Iran enjoys fucking Saudi's shit up, and everyone hates Israel. However, despite this simplistic look at the ME, the truth is even more complex. The Americans support the Saudis who support terrorists that kill Americans who support the Iranians who support other terrorists that also kill Americans but also kill Turks who kill American Allies that kill Iranians and support Israel who kills Arabs that are supported by both Saudi Arabia and Iran. And even that is barely scratching the surface.

For reasons that escape me however, it looks like the Americans are now going to support Iran in this mess. This tracks with the indecision that's so American these past 50 years, each president since Carter has backed a different country to be the ME powerhouse, with basically each of our picks biting us in the ass at some point in the future. Iran for whatever reason is Europe and the Biden administration's pick. This angers there other powers of course, but they are hardly sympathetic losers. The Saudi's took American support and killed Americans with it. Israel takes American support and uses it to only secure small areas of land. Turkey takes American support and kills American Allies with it. However, even with all that, those options seem much better than a nuclear Iran to me, which will at least doom Israel to a nuclear strike within a decade or two. And since Israel is a nuclear power itself, you might as well be dancing with the first major nuclear exchange.

I'm not sure what the short term goal of dancing with Iran is, but I'm guessing it's got to do with trade routes that pass through the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf. Iranian ships have been a major annoyance to just about every world power that trades in those gulfs, and Iran has probably made it clear that those costly interruptions can stop if the Americans decide to come back to the negotiating table. I know Europe is pushing hard for Iran, so that they could get better access to the region and destabilize Israeli and Saudi interests. Overall, don't expect any logic to come out of ME policy. It's pretty much a fool's errand.

Lastly, we'll leave off at the Americans.

Americans are in a clusterfuck. Thanks to domestic issues, American focus is solely on the homefront, and they do not look ready to tackle any of those problems at all. Constant media disinformation has left a wide information gap leading to more and more extreme elements, especially on the left, to act with more and more fanaticism. If successful, Americans can be grappling with much more in the near future. In the short-term however, we can expect the slow aging of America's fleets to continue, and we can continue to expect to lose the technological edge. Without getting in so much to the various domestic issues (trying to keep this geopolitical), if they aren't resolved one way or another, foreign powers will continue to exert pressure on all weak links in America's defense, of which there are many.

First up, America's aging arsenal. All US armed forces being equal, the US Navy is the backbone of any force projection in the world. Floating mammoths packed with more firepower than most country's have at they're disposal, they are the picture of power.

But that's the thing, they are pictures. They haven't evolved with the times. And while no one can reject the amount of kick ass present on each American Carrier group. The problem however is that missile technology has progressed to the point where giant floating islands in the sea make great targets. And while Americans can avoid such missiles in the middle of the ocean (for now) it does create an area of denial 1000 miles from China shores. Which is handy, because the majority of the islands that hem the Chinese into the East China Sea are within that 1000 miles.

America's response to China's missiles has been to lean on the Japanese. Which they have the same issue as the Americans re: missiles, but that little tidbit of info is not something that Biden wants to look into. The Biden Admin is perfectly happy to let the Japanese sweat the details while the Americans look on from Hawaii. The Japanese aren't too happy about it, but there's isn't much they can do. Shunning the Americans truly means the Japanese are alone, rather than having the empty promises that Biden will make. (I'm sure Japan's cost guard needs a new Boston Whaler)

Secondly, the Americans domestic picture looks like a piece of shit. Sure on paper everything works, if you are only looking at markets. The truth is though we look more like the Chinese during the opium wars than a nation in the brink of a golden era. Rampant drug use, lack of civil trust, eroding faith in just about everything, lack of opportunities to capitalize on with your natural abilities, large tyrannical government that concerns itself with what you do in private, state corporations enacting and backing fascist social movements. This is the picture of decline, not success. As the divide between the political aristocracy and the common people grows, expect very forceful, cruel, and terrible decisions to come from their government that are completely tone deaf to what is actually needed. Overall this will weaken Americans and America's ability to project power. And with the Biden administration in power, I would not be surprised if a left-wing terrorist targets Republicans or a Republican state capital and Biden would come out congratulating the terrorists for their bravery.

Thirdly, global parasitism will continue unabated, gutting American manufacturing ability. Remember how the Japanese in WW2 wanted to hit the Americans with a major decisive defeat before the American manufacturing wing could start producing at full power? That won't be a problem anymore. With American manufacturing and energy production pretty much completely shuttered and practically made illegal under democrat rule, there is no bounce back while the democrats are in power. And with a robust voter fraud system in place, Democrats are looking to fully maintain their grip on power and do not plan on letting go.

Overall, America isn't looking good in the future. The democrats have taped the gas meter at full, the media reports that the gas tank is full, the driver believes the gas tank is full, the junior mechanic says that the gas tank is full, however the senior mechanic knows there's about 3 miles left in the tank, 5 if you are going downhill. Worst case scenario? Massive economic downturn. No clue when, no clue as to how. At this point though with so many people getting checks from the government, if any of it ended it would be disastrous. At the worst, expect to start seeing 5 dollar menus at McDonald's as the value of the dollar gets weaker and weaker. Other countries will take extreme advantage of the weak dollar, and with the weak Biden administration at the helm, don't expect them to do much (even if they were able, which he isn't).

It's unfortunate that most of this could have been avoided if Trump won a second term, but as we have all found out. Actual true meaningful progress will never get a fair shake in today's media. Only feel-good laws and racial discrimination will get passed. Further weakening American society and culture. White people, the main recipient of racism, will continue to be treated as 4th-class citizens as minority groups take advantage of the special privileges offered to them. As Americans stratify along racial lines, the animosity will grow between each group. Nothing good will come of this, but the democrat ruling party does not care.

I don't have time, or energy to write up a large post right now, but the latest bullshit about Cuomo has been dropped.

NON ARCHIVED LINK:https://www.foxnews.com/us/cuomo-aide-nursing-home-data-trump-doj

Honestly, not surprising that a democrat governor that got heaps of underserved praise actually shit the bed and got media cover for it for free.

There's a lesson here in that if you are a politician, have your younger brother become an influential member of the media to run block plays for you. I'm waiting for more info to come out. I've gotten an anecdotal story about over testing in a hospital in NY.

You notice how right after inauguration day they admitted to double and triple counting positive covid tests and they significantly increased the threshold for a positive test

Your sick and go into the er.... You get tested and positive, 1 positive

Your still in the er at midnight......2 positives

You get admitted which is a discharge from the er and redmission..... Guess what? Youre 3 positive covid cases

Another thing we see...... There's a rapid testing clinic or rapid test for suspected covid cases. You get rapid tested and it's positive....1 positive cases. But, rapids aren't that good so you also have to get a send out test to confirm. 3 days later it comes back positive..... That's another positive case Oddly enough, if the send out comes back negative you're still considered positive and have to isolate for 14 days

Yes, 100% I've seen both of those things happen and get counted that way

Now this is anecdotal story from a hospital employee, but I believe that this needs more follow up because honestly, this is fucked up. I know we are all skeptics at heart here, but I believe there's a honest tries worth at unraveling this.

More in the morning probably...

So I don't know if you've heard the story of an elderly Thai man getting shoved to the ground, then later dying of his injuries, but it's been gaining stream in the Asian American community.

NON-ARCHIVED LINK: https://coconuts.co/bangkok/news/elderly-thai-man-in-san-francisco-killed-by-teen-in-unprovoked-attack/

So the first thing you'll notice is a very clear aversion of describing the person who pushed the old Asian man beyond saying their names Antoine Watson and his girlfriend Malaysia Goo. I'll let you make your own conclusions from their names.

However, this is apparently apart of a larger problem in the Bay Area. Asian Americans are feeling targeted and abused. However there is very little political will to even touch the subject in an honest, let alone productive, way. With greater social media presence (Asian women love social media) stories that typically got buried are now reaching national attention.

The problem is, it isn't the right people commiting the violence. These aren't roving bands of railroad enthusiasts longing for the days of cheap Chinese immigrant laborers. So the story is coming off very hollow. If you subject yourself to the rabbit hole, you're going to find lots of labored double-think and misdirected conclusions.

The media's attempt at placating louder Asian Americans is to frame the problem as "American racism" without going deep into who is commiting the violence against Asian Americans. Resulting in no change to status quo.

The politicians reaction has been to simply sweep it under the rug, or make reference to obscure supposed attacks against asians by white people, or even more hilariously, reference Chinese railroad labor from more than 100 years ago.

I don't expect much to come of this in terms of disillusioning Asian Americans from BLM. I think the media at large will paint it as a white people problem and if the blacks are doing it than the whites are surely involved, rubbing their hands in the evil way that they do.

All very interesting though.

So a lot of stuff has happened the last time I gave unasked social and political commentary, so I wanted to follow up. I'm going to break down some of the stuff I see happening and give my easy opinion on all of it. I hope in this thread I'll have time to respond to replies unlike my last one, sorry about that.

I also want to say, some have commented that I don't mention economics enough. That's because I can barely understand them far enough from generating a profit on smart (lucky) market choices. I've been told each year of my life that I can remember that a major economic meltdown was on the horizon. Besides the "Great Recession", they've been wrong more than right. That doesn't mean they'll always be wrong however.

Anyways, let's get to milking the awesome title of my post.

The Good

So I wanted to start this with the good news. I wrote some things down when I was in a good mood, so a lot of this may be rosier than things may actually be.

So let's start off with big picture. The USA isn't going anywhere. As a country, geographically, we occupy the best real estate in the world. Enough powerful people recognize this and have enough sway to avoid a "balkanization" or some such break up of regions. This means we will still have a country, should we ever reach the political driver seat again.

Trump is looking like he's trying to lash together some media life raft with his money. I'm not sure if it'll work, but honestly Trump money is what this movement will need. I'm not positive how long it will last, as I see Trump having a very molested future that will prove very expensive for him and his family. For now however, we need it. The biggest challenge immediately present, for reasons I'll get into, is for us is to have the communication platform necessary for continued organization. Trump money is seemingly the one avenue where we can fund something to achieve that.

If there is to be any silver lining in this, the populist right lashed together a gigantic voter union with many dissatisfied elements of American politics who are rightfully angry. We were able to do so in the span of one year prior to the 16 election. And we added numbers through the turbulent Trump presidency. We aren't going away, and as the dickish Jeff Goldblum said: "Life, uh, finds a way."

The Bad This next part obviously is the not-so-awesome stuff that's going on. It's not terrible, but it's annoying and, well, bad.

So it's pretty obvious we are getting sent to the political woods with all our toys broken, right? Republicans are being pressured to disown any conservative populism categorically. Any assistance or appearance of support will be massively and energetically attacked and encouraged by practically all institutions. I've kind of debated putting this in the Ugly, but honestly, this isn't new to us. We've been in the political woods for a long time before Trump, it's territory we know and we've used that to our advantage before.

Just to sum up how bad is gotten though, pretty much the only thing seemingly stopping full weapons-grade political retardation is a D senator from West Virgina.

Now I mentioned before that the US has fantastic geography right? You know who else has awesome geography? Argentina. When was the last time you heard that country's name and good news in the same sentence?

Democrat's political narcissism can and will restrain the more successful industries in this country. Partly by design, partly by ignorance. It's no secret that foreign powers like to utilize our green movement in order to hamstring our energy industry. Democrats will pay and play right into that. That could possibly lead to some stuff I'll get into with the Ugly, but I'm hoping someone with a brain stops the stupid. I know, that is asking for a lot.

Circling back to our (now broken) toys. The obvious intent is to fracture the political movement of the populist right. They intend to drive wedges between the different groups in an effort to promote geographic squabbling, purity spirals, isolation, and political echoism. The best way to do that is to get everyone divided up into smaller and smaller groups and then limit contact with all of them so that each develop a unique or central belief that is at odds with one another. Of course there are a lot of risks in doing this, but drunk on victory, Democrats don't seem to notice. If successful, we are looking at a long time for regrouping.

I mentioned before that the Republicans may have a chance in 2024, I want you to memory hole that I ever said that. In fact, I never said it, AOC did and she attributed it to me (My lame attempt at being a Stalinist). Seriously though, I think the Republicans are going to go away with the Whigs. With casting the Populists out of the party, they are essentially left with a handful of regional parties, evangelicals, and then the leftovers from the business, defense, and law enforcement groups. That's not a winning combo, and I don't see the Republicans doing much of anything about it. My money is that they attempt to woo second generation immigrant families who already tend to vote R. I'm sure they'll find some success, especially with second generation Latinos. Only issue there now is that will those voters be more like evangelicals, or like the Populists? Republicans don't have long to figure it out.

The Ugly

So this is the bad bad stuff. I'd like to preface it by that they're is a lot of possible overplays that could go on here, and that can alter everything should the plan "go wrong". However, it doesn't seem like any of these actors are concerned with overplaying their hand, which either leads me to believe that they are prepared, or extremely narcissistic. Possibly both?

Democrats have a winning strategy that Republicans cannot compete against. Yes it's cheating, yes it occupies a morally grey area, yes it challenges the very basis of our "social contract" that we "agreed" to by living. Yes it's super ironic for a party named "Democrat" to resort to undemocratic methods to get elected. And guess what? They do not care. They cheated, but the scoreboard still says 10 to 4 amigo and the crowd is cheering on, not knowing they are next.

Democrats are on a victory tour to match the Allies marching in Berlin in their minds. The "riot" at the capital was squashed with barely a headache and the casualties already forgotten. The propaganda is obvious to us, so I don't have to list all the technical terms, I just want to say it's going to get so much worse. Democrats are planning on not having any political opposition to them and are on track to enact carte blanche of democract policy. Most of it is political narcissism in the form of leftist populism, but that shouldn't understate the damage it can do to the economy, most notably the energy sector.

The Shale revolution kicked off one of the greatest developments in America's early 21st century. Energy independence. It's no surprise that as we started pulling gas from cracks in rocks, our interest in all things Middle East just sorta died. In fact, since becoming an energy producer, our interest in the world overall had dissipated. And this is across the political spectrum. The right is looking for general disinvolve the US in global matters, the left is looking to limit American intervention in the world.

However, this does not work for Chinese interests. China likes to see an American involvement in the Middle East. This sinks American resources in an effort to secure essentially Chinese oil deposits while keeping the Americans out of their front doormat in SE Asia. Unlike the US, China needs to import it's energy, which gets it's very involved with the Persian gulf. Currently through soft power they've established connections with Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait. As long as the Americans don't target Chinese interests, every bomb exploded on a competitors oil field is more market share for the Chinese to take over. Russia also has a similar interest, as it's growing energy industry looks to create market connections in Western Europe, where it competes with American energy imports.

What this is means is both Russia and China have an interest in shuttering the American energy market. Both Russia and China have deep money and ideology connections to the American Green movement. The American Green movement has its hands on one of the levers of power now. If you are in the American energy industry, get out.

With American energy dependence renewed, expect heavy foreign involvement, but only the Yemen type of involvement. Lots of drones, lots of explosions, lots of death, lots of people not caring back at home. We'll secure Chinese oil assets with minimal human losses, but at great resource expenditure. We'll be beholden to foreign powers for energy, and thanks to Green energy, we'll have power grid failures and a return of brown outs, ironically causing more pollution as we become more inefficient.

It's going to be ugly.

Lastly I'll touch on culture.

Overall, across the world, humans as a species have become more tyrannical since the 20th century. Culture has changed from opportunities-driven success based model to a klepto-crab bucket mentality. Part of that is because we've started living in the cities more than the countryside. Part of this is due to technology. Part of this is by design. And part by accident. How we got here is less important than where we are however. And where we are is scary. Demand for government intervention in our lives is at an all time high. Demographic and population changes dictate that the government intervention we will have to be unequal and preferential. Worse yet, it will rarely reflect reality. This won't change with voting for a different party, this will be entrenched across the political class.

Actually one last thing for ugly. Should there be a massive bubble burst and the economy goes in the shitter, I hope you have a game plan if you are white. All of this white privilege stuff went by Jewish privilege in early 20th century Germany. Once the economy went south there, it went from Jew evil to kill Jews real quick. I didn't think it could happen here, but the next president of the United States is literally saying if you were black and did this we would kill you, without a concern aired over the billions of dollars of damages across the country during BLM's summer of fire. Just goes to show where the priorities are with the incoming administration.

Some notes for the future: This is the lame part where I tell you to work out, trust the plan, and drink your milk.

First off, I want to kill any talk about balkanization of the US. It won't work, at all. The geographic structure of this country would ensure conflicts and constant interaction/disruption. The nation states that would form from a split would inevitably collide in a way which one would be the victor, and with full institutional support for the authoritarians, any such battle would go sideways quick. For better or worse, this is the country we have, and we shouldn't want it any other way.

Secondly, work needs to be done on establishing communications between the various groups that make up the populist right (The Liberty Movement! I totally came up with that, and yes it's lame). Balkanization is exactly what the left wants us to aim for because that spreads us out and allows for a defeat in detail. Staying united provides a stiff front and lets us to continue talking. If we are to do anything it is to maintain what avenues of communication we can.

Thirdly, use the organization we are able to retain to elect local politicians that are born from our movement that will stonewall all federal advancements in the field of governing. The key is to start at the places the D's won't care or don't think are important and move up. Not everyone will be successful, but the more you spitball, the more spitballs stick.

I think that's it for now. I'd like to reiterate that there is plenty of room here for variation. China or the Democrats can overplay their hand.

Democrats in their drunkenness may inadvertently cause a snapback, where they see the social progress they so desperately need begins rolling back despite the renewed furor for social purity.

China in its rush to the top may inadvertently spark an incident in the Malacca Strait, turning it's entire neighborhood into a hot bed of Anti-CCP resistance.

Russia, in that it's Russia, will continue to be paranoid about it's continued existence and do r every thing possible to retain it's access to the Artic circle, as well as it's last remaining warm water port, which pretty much puts it on a crash course with Turkey and Canada.

To quote Goldblum again, life, uh, finds a way

I fought, I lost, now I rest

If you are like me, you are probably feeling a little bit like Alliser Thorne right before getting hung by Jon Snow. And if anyone has deserved rest it's us. The past 4 years have been hell for anyone slightly right of center, and it is looking like it won't get much better. While the full corporate and governing power of the US is bearing down on us all, I'd like to post this, for posterity of for nothing else.

I'd like to opine on the next few years. I'll start off by saying I'm not a genius, I'm not anyone special. All I've got is a knack for movements, including the kind that comes out of my ass, which all of this very much might be. Don't take my opinions to the bank is all I'm trying to say. There are plenty of people that are more knowledgeable than me. My only credential is a degree in philosophy and 20 years working with local non-profits and political action groups.

As you can already tell, the victory lap has begun. The erasure and unpersoning of Trump had already begun. Lots of people, innocent or guilty, are going to get caught in the maelstrom. The full weight of the democrat-corporate machine will operate against the Trump family in a way that will make Italian Fascists blush. The overwhelming power will be extraordinary to witness and will make you question the actual gridlock in Congress. It will be sad, it will be unjustified, and nothing can or will be done to stop it. Maybe in 10 or 20 years hindsight will be kinder, but for now, no quarter.

And what does this mean for the country? Well, nothing great. Countries that engage in a reign of terror in order to monopolize one groups political narcissism rarely do well. However, America is different enough to be able to take a decade or more off from sanity and still have economic gains, however meager they may be and however meager those gains are that can be enjoyed by it's people.

Expect a lot of domestic policy out of the Biden white house, nothing atomic grade stupid, but the typical lukewarm stupidity that no one likes but is applauded by the circus in Congress. "Detrumping" the different government alphabets will be the first priority, with most aspects reverting to how they were in the Obama years. Industry winners will be the democrat's usual suspects: Technology, Green energy, environmentalists, insurance carriers, big businesses like Amazon and Wal-Mart, and the banking industries.

They'll attempt social engineering as well. Expect "diversity" to be mentioned everywhere in regards to everything. Any time anything gets "diversified" expect a lot of political theater, and you'll now be expected to clap along.

Overall domestically, I think we are riding into an annoying 4 years. I don't think Biden/Harris will be all that popular and after the scary boogie man of Trump has slinked away most people will be looking back at the Trump administration as actually being calmer than it was. Unless Republicans continue their reshuffling with no clear outcome, 2024 might be a good chance for a republican presidency.

However, I think the Republican reshuffle is more like the Whig party than the shuffle during the early 1900s. Republicans lost 3 of their main institutional support groups this election. Neo-conservatives jumped to Democrats after seeing the Republicans drift into pushing for global isolation. The intelligence community followed suite after Republicans declared it wasn't enough to stop interfering with the world's politics, but wanted to retreat from the world, period. The business community is slowly sliding Democrat because corporate exec boards are finding Democrat statist policies preferable to the (relatively) open market policies of the Republicans. This leaves the Republicans with two groups: Populists and evangelicals.

Evangelicals are a echo. They hold some numbers, but they have rescinded from the political forefront and are pretty much regulated to the wilderness of political irrelevance. No one has taken then seriously since Bush.

And then we are left at us, which pretty much fall into right leaning populists. While we do hold some very impressive numbers, we hold no political power of our own outside of that. The past 4 years have seen our media personalities cancelled, platforms de-platformed, and around the clock harassment. We need to recover, and there is potential to do that, which I'll get into later.

Internationally, we will continue our strategic drift. Biden has not shown anything of competency on foreign policy and has a wonderful track record in the Senate as being on just about the wrong side of every foreign policy blunder we've had on the past 50 years. While the rumor is that under Biden, Sino-American ties will get stronger. I'm not convinced. I'm sure Biden would like to get closer to China, but I don't think he will have the skills to do it in a way that is good for us or the world. I expect China to take advantage of that and act predatorial. It won't be great for us as a country, but I don't think it'll will be purposeful in regards to Biden's actions, I just think Biden would be a bad president overall and wouldn't be able to do anything about it.

Outside of China, I see us trying to integrate ourselves back into the global system in order to continue to prop up the post Cold War international order. It'll feel and look mostly like a 600 pound woman trying to fit in a size 2, but it'll be attempted.

Overall, I don't think it's all doom yet. Yes we will have a couple of terrible, hard years to come as our platforms come under increasing attack, but if we can take this time to do the following:

Be social, be healthy. Take an interest in your community, work on your mental and physical health.

Set up communities or platforms. for example, set a reading list with books inspired by liberty and freedom. Boards like this one where like minded people can group together and talk about exchange information. Anything that can keep us in contact without devolving into populist purity spirals.

Small acts and big acts. Depending on your ability, perform some civil disobedience. For example, I enjoy putting anti-socialist literature in the little cubby libraries that towns have started erecting in parks and such. Not exactly illegal, is enough to turn some heads, and it's cheap enough for me to sustain distributing books and pamphlets in an anonymous way.

Get involved. It sounds cheesy and kind of like the 90s PSA that tried to get you to vote. Guess what happened though? All those lame kids in school took that PSA to heart and did just that. That annoying girl in band class that joined PETA because animals are just too cute? Yeah city council-person to you now. Time for you to do the same. Get into annoying local groups and turn them inside out. Use the rules for radicals to your advantage. If you can't subsume one of those groups, give it enough sensory overload that it can't focus on saving the cute farting cows.

I think I'll wrap it up there for now. They say to never disparage your own writing, but I feel like if you've read it this far than at least I didn't sound like a crazy person.

I'll just finish up by saying good luck to everyone here. It's been a wild and crazy 4 years, and if anyone deserves some rest, it's you.