A run or a streak is a series of the same outcome in a random sample. For example 3 heads in a row in a series of 10 coin flips, or 1000 votes in a row for a single candidate.
Calculating the exact answer requires going over the canonical ensemble and is not practical for large samples, but a proof is done here. However there is a good approximation, as follows:
N is the number of trials, K is the minimum streak size, p is the probability of a single event, and q is the complement, 1-p.
Assume that N is pretty big compared to K. A string of heads (that can be zero heads long) starts with a tails, and there should be about Nq of those. The probability of a particular string of heads being at least K long is p^K so you can expect that there should be around E=Nqp^K strings of heads at least K long. When E≥1, that means that it’s pretty likely that there’s at least one run of K heads. When E<1, E=Nqp^K is approximately equal to the chance of a run of at least K showing up.
Lets put some numbers to this and see what happens
For N=1000, p=q=.5, and K =10
1000*.5*.5^10 = 0.488 or about a 50% chance of getting a string of 10 heads in 1000 coin flips
For N=10,000, p=q=.5, and K =100
10,000*.5*.5^100 = 3.94*10^-27
Already we can see that long streaks are very uncommon . You would be just as likely to win the Powerball lottery three draws in a row ((10^-9)^3 or 10^-27).
Some time tonight, we will be asked to believe that a streak of 1000 showed up in 100,000 votes
For N=100,000, p=q=.5, and K =1000
100000*.5*.5^1000 = 4.67*10^-297
and for those of you that say votes are not coin flips
For N=100,000, p=.6, q=.4, and K =1000 giving a 10% advantage to Mcluffie, completely unrealistic.
100000*.4*.6^1000 = 5.67*10^-218
This is at the same level as winning every single Powerball lottery for an entire year. It is an event that will never occur in a universe of universes. So either they either are ruling by divine right, or they are stealing our government.
Reddit trannies are trying to cancel one of the devs of Factorio.
Some background:
Factorio is logistics and automation simulation game. It has the cleanest code of any game ever released, and thus no bugs remaining in the game as of release. Every Friday one of the devs writes a short blog post (FFF) on their website about the coding of the game, and how they deal with the bugs and improvements. (If you are a coder i HIGHLY recommend reading the all of the FFF: https://www.factorio.com/blog/).
In the most recent FFF (https://www.factorio.com/blog/post/fff-366), one of the devs, Kovarex, references some sort of programming guru, Uncle Bob. Apparently Uncle Bob said some positive things about Trump once. Kovarax never said anything political in the FFF or his initial reddit replies. The video he linked never said anything political. And he only mentioned cancel culture once Reddit started demanding that he remove the video from the FFF. His response was for said redditor to "shove their cancel culture up their ass." This reference to someone who is not a flaming liberal and Kovarax's refusal to back down (so far) is enough to cause reddit to freak out. Now they are calling for Kovarex to resign and are trying to get refunds for Factorio. Before Friday, Factorio had the highest user rating on Steam. It has now fallen to second place according to steamdb, thanks the the tranny terror.
The locked thread in question, with enough deletions to satisfy even Antonio:
https://old.reddit.com/r/factorio/comments/o2ly6f/friday_facts_366_the_only_way_to_go_fast_is_to_go/
And the megathread to kill the discussion:
https://old.reddit.com/r/factorio/comments/o3e9y4/meta_fff_drama_discussion_megathread/
Here are some choice bullshit from the salt mines:
[–]nckl 113 points 1 day ago*2locked comment This game was almost a meme because of how many trans people loved it. Like, it's like the go-to game in a lot of queer discords I'm in for whatever reason, for years. It's kinda impossible to describe how out of the blue this is, and like everyone's trying to find the next game to play together. Like again, I know you don't care, but this game has done good for those communities, and could've continued to do good. I can't in good conscious ever recommend this game again knowing people like you profit from it.
As for why? A lot of trans people are programmers (one of a few jobs even possible with very little interaction with other people), and this game appeals to programmers. Maybe there's an overlap with autism with meticulously placing and designing everything, which is more common in queer people. It's a really good game to play without voice chat, which trans-peeps usually try to avoid. It's really easy to just kinda tune out the rest of the lgbt-phobic shitty world and lose yourself in it. It's quiet and non-threatening. It can be played on crappy hardware, and a lot of queer people are broke af. And it's just a well-made game.
While there's nothing wrong with enjoying content made by problematic people (with appropriate disclaimers, which you adamently hate), some people can't get over that, and I can't blame them. I can't think of Bill Cosby without thinking of all the fucked up shit; like I couldn't watch the Cosby show, it's too distracting. I can't watch uncle Bob's shit thinking of the other stuff he said. If you can, seriously great! There's clearly some useful info there. But understand that others (usually in marginalized groups) sometimes can't. That doesn't make them weaker, that usually just means they've been hurt due to that marginalization. If you want someone to blame, blame the person for being a bigot.
And now in the minds of a lot of people, factorio is forever linked with you, the founder, going on some insane right-wing tyrade in reddit one random Friday morning and refusing to just acknowledge that Uncle Bob is bigoted. It sucks! Every time I launch the game, I just get to be reminded about another bigoted person with power and wealth. I wish you hadn't done this.
[–]kovarexDeveloper 66 points 1 day ago What did Uncle Bob say against trans people, be specific please.What did I say or do against trans people?
Could we please be able to open topic like this without the need to immediatelly take sides and approach it as a war with extremes on both sides?
The amount of delusion from nckl is incredible. And he can't even point to a single sentence where Kovarax says ANYTHING disparaging trannies. Also he reinforces stereotypes about Discord.
[–]angrywheel18 -20 points 1 day ago* Please note that I am using trans rights as an example here.
Please understand that somethings aren't a debate and can never be a debate, people's human rights being one of them. Pretending you don't mean any harm to trans people while being open to debating whether they should have rights is harmful because you are legitimizing the other side of the argument by giving equal weight to a side that never had any merit in the first place. Basic human rights are not debatable period.
Bringing out the Trans rights are human rights bullshit. They need to prove that trannies are human first.
[–]UTUSBN533000 14 points 1 day agolocked comment Free speech only deals with the state. Private companies and platforms can retaliate however they want. Sad that factorio developer doesn't know the difference.
muh private companies
https://old.reddit.com/r/factorio/comments/o3e9y4/meta_fff_drama_discussion_megathread/h2d6fxk/
[–]someinfosecguy [score hidden] 5 hours ago Kovarex mentioned a man named Uncle Bob in reference to coding. Someone demanded Kovarex put a disclaimer saying Uncle Bob was a misogynist bigot without providing any evidence to that fact. Kovarex told them to "shove their cancel culture up their a**." People were upset that Kovarex was unprofessional in his response and Kovarex didn't back down. Now people are saying that Kovarex and Uncle Bob are massive racist, misogynist, bigots because Kovarex told this user to take his politics and shove it instead of putting up a disclaimer. Just to add on, having a disclaimer like that is completely and utterly unheard of, the user was just trying to start something.
If you want to check for yourself, just take a look through the comments at which side of the argument is providing sources and evidence and which side is just yelling accusatory things at people who disagree with them.
This is one of the few sane replies.
There are, of course, many more crying redditors.
Now the only thing to do is wait and see if Wube bends the knee, or stands its ground. Godspeed, Kovarax.
Faggots delenda est.