Trump was absolutely correct that Zelensky doesn't have any cards, but as of the fall of Kursk, neither has Trump. It's not his fault, but it is what it is.
- Weapons? Useless.
- Sanctions? Not very effective.
- Direct military reinforcement? Out of the question.
- Kursk? Fallen.
The only thing Putin has to lose is more of his men in the course of the war, but I'd guess the majority of Russian soldiers and civilians believe the fight is worth it at this point. Russia will whoop on Ukraine some more and eventually there won't be anything to negotiate with.
It's always hard to tell what's real, since both sides put out massive amounts of propaganda, but it would be interesting if Russia had allowed Kursk to be occupied, to set a trap. There's worries about the Ukrainian forces being cut off, which would completely reverse the bargaining power of occupying Russian territory.
Imagine if Russia comes to the table with freshly captured or trapped Ukrainian forces in the tens of thousands, where Ukraine thought they had Russian land instead.
Sounds like special forces were walking around in the gas pipelines and used them to launch rear attacks on the Ukrainians, too. Pretty amazing.
Those aren't worries anymore. Russia has had full artillery and drone coverage of the only supply route to Kursk for a week or more now.
Not that hard to imagine. We're talking about the people who sacrificed Moscow to rope-a-dope Napoleon, after all. Most people just can't understand that Russians do war differently than we do and don't really care that much about casualties.
there are already reports that 10k ukrainians were cut off, with an unknown number captured.