I don't necessarily agree that betting markets are better for predictions than polls because of reasons like this.
For example, Ronda Rousey v. Holly Holm had 4000:1 odds for Holly in Vegas because the media over-hyped Rousey.
What we've been seeing in the betting markets is the populism of free market, but also monied interests (both among Dems & Reps) to sway said market one direction or another.
Markets help push through bullshit and push polls, but a good poll is better than a betting odds.
I don't necessarily agree that betting markets are better for predictions than polls because of reasons like this.
For example, Ronda Rousey v. Holly Holm had 4000:1 odds for Holly in Vegas because the media over-hyped Rousey.
What we've been seeing in the betting markets is the populism of free market, but also monied interests (both among Dems & Reps) to sway said market one direction or another.
Markets help push through bullshit and push polls, but a good poll is better than a betting odds.
polls are tainted by the pollsters, their sample data, and how the poll questions were written.
betting markets are tainted by hype.
I trust hype more than pollsters, but shit like this goes to show that even hype is not the be all end all.