I plan to vote regardless, but yes, I put more stock in betting site odds than public polling. Public polling is vulnerable to people concealing their views, it’s vulnerable to only certain cohorts responding, and, of course, it’s vulnerable to top down bias in fudging the methodology to get the results you want to publish. In theory, a prediction market doesn’t have those weaknesses because it’s reflective of people with actual stakes, in the form of their bet, predicting what they think is most likely to happen in order to try to win money.
I’m not saying that the only explanation is that someone is specifically investing millions of dollars to make Trump voters overconfident, but I am saying that yes, there’s an argument to be made that betting markets are a form of polling and thus a potential tool to shape public opinion.
I plan to vote regardless, but yes, I put more stock in betting site odds than public polling. Public polling is vulnerable to people concealing their views, it’s vulnerable to only certain cohorts responding, and, of course, it’s vulnerable to top down bias in fudging the methodology to get the results you want to publish. In theory, a prediction market doesn’t have those weaknesses because it’s reflective of people with actual stakes, in the form of their bet, predicting what they think is most likely to happen in order to try to win money.
I’m not saying that the only explanation is that someone is specifically investing millions of dollars to make Trump voters overconfident, but I am saying that yes, there’s an argument to be made that betting markets are a form of polling and thus a potential tool to shape public opinion.
The odds were 5/1 on trump when he won in 2016.
Which is still far closer than those ridiculous polls that said things like “97% chance Hillary wins” on Election Day.