I work from home most days and the voting place is like 1.5 miles from me so I went and voted during lunch (lot more people than I thought would be there at that time). I’d say Trump will win but I thought he would win in 2020 (suspicious stuff aside of course). I have a friend who thinks it will be a 1984 style blowout for Trump, but I doubt that since demographic changes have made such a landslide nearly impossible. Another friend of mine thinks it would be poetic justice for Trump to win by a razor thin margin and have Dems/media screaming about a stolen election with their own protest at the capitol that the media downplays.
Anyway, what do y’all predict?
there are two outcomes I see happening:
Harris wins via steal. this would be the same playbook as 2020, we all know know how this goes.
Trump actually wins. the reason I see this as a possibility is because, by my observation, he would be the obvious winner in a fair election. this time around there's no covid to remove poll watchers, the media is not as in lockstep as 2020 with CNN and SNL actually challenging and ridiculing Harris at points, and the polls are currently admitting that Trump has a lead (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/). of course, they will let Trump win because they are confident that they have entrenched themselves enough. like his initial presidency, Trump will be president but every institution we'll go behind his back at every opportunity and he will get nothing done.
of the two, I think 1 is more likely than 2. either way, don't expect the outcome of the election to actually change anything.