We're coming up on Month 5 of the fabled four week Ukrainian offensive that was to have pushed the Russians back to Moscow by August. The Ukranians are estimated to have taken more than a quarter of a million casualties, are almost totally out of armored vehicles and are largely down to attacking in waves like zombies by drugging their conscripted soldiers with methamphetamine. We've even seen the most blatant attempt at a CIA color revolution in our lifetimes in the form of the hastily aborted Wagner rebellion, and the company has since largely been absorbed into the Russian Ministry of Defense. And we've finally started seeing fatigue set in within the US political system as the normally cowardly cuckolds of the Republican party are now suggesting that pouring a third of the defense budget into the most corrupt country on earth might have been a bad idea.
Thus I ask, how do you think the conflict will be resolved?
One small caveat, since I haven't seen this mentioned much on the site. The Russians officially consider the United States a belligerent in the war, and won't accept negotiations brokered by the US government. Turns out lend lease isn't a trick that works twice.
I expect some sort of unstable ceasefire will come eventually (US election time?) with Russia getting Crimea and some of Eastern Ukraine as they wanted. After elections Ukraine will probably try again to retake lost territory, but the blender that is Ukraine's military will likely end any hope of real success on their part. To my knowledge Russia just wants Sevastopol, and Crimea can be turned into a fortress given enough time.