All of the headlines suggest The Little Mermaid is a huge hit, but this isn’t remotely true.
The 2019 Lion King remake made $191 million domestic on opening weekend.
The TLM remake made $118 million domestic on opening weekend.
The Lion King finished at $1.6 billion with two thirds of that being international.
The Little Mermaid only took in $68 million international on opening weekend.
Napkin math says Mermaid will make $350ish million total domestic. If international percentage holds, that’s only another $200ish million.
Projected total? $550 million. On a $250 million budget, that’s a gigantic flop.
Genuine question: How much would it have to make to not be a flop? I'm not familiar with industry expectations, but my uneducated instinct is that a profit a little over the size of the budget isn't terrible. What total/budget ratio is considered a success?
As u/Vicious_snek7 said, 2x published budget is usually the break even point. Paul Feig is on record saying his $150 million ghostbusters reboot needed to clear $500 million to secure a sequel, so make of that what you will.
It’s important to realize, however, that investors are not happy with a $500 million gamble that returns $50 million in profit. When a studio puts up half a billion dollars, they want $750 million back, minimum. Not every big bet is going to turn out, so you need your “sure things” to cover your losses and then some.
In the case of Disney’s live action remakes, the bar is even higher. Lion King made $1.66 billion and Beauty and the Beast made $1.25 billion, both on similar budgets. If The Little Mermaid lands at that $550-600 million mark, it’s a huge disappointment. Even at $750-850 million, executives will be asking some pointed questions.
Yep. I read an article a while back about silicon valley guys who had started a company and been funded by VCs. They had opportunities to sell the companies at large multiples but were shut down by the VCs who owned majority stakes in their company. They eventually ran out of money, couldn't sell at all and were stuck with the debt they'd never pay back. Groups and people with that kind of money aren't content with just making all of it back.