All of the headlines suggest The Little Mermaid is a huge hit, but this isn’t remotely true.
The 2019 Lion King remake made $191 million domestic on opening weekend.
The TLM remake made $118 million domestic on opening weekend.
The Lion King finished at $1.6 billion with two thirds of that being international.
The Little Mermaid only took in $68 million international on opening weekend.
Napkin math says Mermaid will make $350ish million total domestic. If international percentage holds, that’s only another $200ish million.
Projected total? $550 million. On a $250 million budget, that’s a gigantic flop.
This is unfortunately cope.
It really isn't. As others have said, rule of thumb is 2x to 2.5x the budget to get to breaking even (including marketing, etc.) But the studio only banks between 50% (domestically) and 25% (in China) of the box office. So a $500m box office would mean a $250m loss for Disney on a $250m film like TLM.
This graphic paints an even bleaker picture, but even going off of the accepted rules of thumb, this is a disaster for Disney.
Edit: to bolster my point, even pReddits boxoffice sub is saying that the film will need between 600-700m to start turning a profit, due to the theater cut.
If it was a money loss, they couldn't afford to keep doing it. With the pull they get + ESG funds they are making a killing.
This is the equivalent of "the walls are closing in" or "tick tock" from Hannity. Still cope.
Is this a serious post?
Disney can afford to keep doing it for years. They are the biggest entertainment company in history.
You yourself are saying they rely on ESG funds. Those would only be necessary if the product isn’t generating enough money by itself. That’s what I said in the first place.
Your arguments are terrible.
Nothing I wrote was complicated, but I’ll dumb it down for you anyways.
Lion and Mermaid both cost 250.
Lion made 191 domestic on first weekend. Mermaid made 118.
Lion finished at 543. Mermaid tracking for 348.
Lion finished globally at 1630. For Lion, international = 2x domestic.
For Mermaid, international opening = 68. Only 0.57x domestic. Mermaid tracking for 546 globally.
546 is a much smaller number than 1630.
And this is 2023 dollars vs 2017.
To add more, 250 budget means anywhere from around 500 to 700 to break even. 546 is a huge flop and probably means they lost money.
If they are losing money on all these how can they afford to crank out so many so quickly?
The answer is simple: they aren't. As always they find a formula that works and they milk it dry.
This isn't meant as an insult, it's just that we need to adjust our mentality in order to combat this shit. Sitting and thinking they will sink any moment is not productive and counter to reality.
They're a multibillion dollar conglomerate that is also, as you pointed out, getting ESG money. They can sustain losses for quite a while. Look how long it took for Buzzfeed News and Vice to finally declare bankruptcy, and they're no Disney.
What do you suggest besides a siege? Layoffs and bankruptcies are now, finally, ravaging our original targets (unethical journalist outlets) after years of hard work on our part. The mainstream has absolutely noticed the Bud Light disaster, causing Target to make an (admittedly bullshit, half-hearted) attempt to walk back, despite ESG mandates. DIS stock is now down 20% in the past year, or 11% in the past 5 years, and that doesn't account for inflation. Genuinely, what do you suggest?
Vice got a Golden Parachute from Soros and co.
The real issue in my mind is that essentially, just like the "too big to fail" banks it's ultimately taxpayer money that goes to feed this propaganda. Real change will only come with monetary and tax reform and those need to be primary targets.
Slicing off a hydra head might feel good for a bit, until 3 more grow back. Not to say targets of opportunity like bud light aren't good efforts, but they aren't the heart of the issue.
You are responding to math with empty platitudes. What part of “this movie is on track to lose money” do you not understand?
How can they release so many flops so quickly? Because Avatar 2 made two billion dollars. Because Endgame made 2 billion dollars. Because Lion King made 1.66 billion dollars. Because Beauty and the Beast made 1.23 billion dollars. Disney is the biggest entertainment company in history. They can absorb years of flops.