I thought it may be interesting to introduce a non-mainstream commentator’s analysis about the Ukraine war here, because it’s interesting to see the stark contrast between Brian’s conclusions and those in the MSM. Copied from the show notes:
Russia continues its war of attrition - focusing
on exhausting and overwhelming critical
Ukrainian defenses around Bakhmut in eastern
Ukraine/western Russia;
Despite claims that Russian missile stockpiles
are depleted, Russia continues carrying out
regular, large-scale missile barrages against
Ukrainian infrastructure;
Latest US assistance package for Ukraine
continues the trend of dwindling, inadequate
support for Ukraine;
US government procurement numbers over
the course of the next 2-5 years indicates that
at no time in the near future will the US be
capable of producing let alone supplying
Ukraine with the number of weapons and
ammunition it requires;
While Russian production data is not available,
the fact that Russia's stockpiles and military
were configured for large-scale protracted and
intense combat suggests its military industrial
output is likewise configured for such demands;
The Western media is now admitting that
Ukraine can neither win, nor is there any moral
imperative to ensure that it does.
Youtuber is Brian Berletic, an American who claims he lives in Thailand. He works for the Russian government and has had his accounts banned from Facebook and other social media sites for “coordinated inauthentic behaviour.” He was also suspended from Twitter as a propaganda account. For a long time he lied about his name and claimed to be "Tony Cartalucci", but later switched to Brian Berletic. His social media pages trace back to both thailand & Moscow.
He is a paid Russian agent. He has done collab videos with known paid CCP agents such as Daniel Dumbrill. So everything he says should be taken as simple mouthpiece regurgitation of Russian state media talking points.
And, of course, he has been shilling for Russia since day 1 of the war.
Relzung, the OP reposting the Russian agent here, has a post history of pure Russian shilling.
At this point I can only laugh, because all of this is just copium at this point. It is totally divorced from reality. This dude is just giving false talking points to soothe the pain of the people who were rooting for Russia.
Russia continues its war of attrition - focusing on exhausting and overwhelming critical Ukrainian defenses around Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine/western Russia;
Russia has been doing this for months and made 0 gains. Bakhmut remains in Ukrainian hands, and it is obviously so well fortified at this point that Russia has no hope of taking it. The only result of Russia's attacks have been lots and lots of dead Russians and lost equipment. An entrenched defender has a huge advantage.
The fact that Russia keeps doubling down on stupid failure at Bakhmut proves that they simply don't have what it takes to win the war. They don't fight with any intelligence or grand strategy. Instead, the only things Russia has proven to be good at in this war are (1) rapid retreats, and (2) extensive entrenchments in some areas. Russia has had 0 offensive success anywhere since the beginning of July, which is now over 5 months ago. Even then, it was a slow and grinding capture of a very small amount of land around Lysychans'k. And that was their only success after their initial surge in February.
Despite claims that Russian missile stockpiles are depleted, Russia continues carrying out regular, large-scale missile barrages against Ukrainian infrastructure;
I follow a lot of big Ukraine commentators on Twitter and nobody is saying Russian missile stockpiles are depleted. They are much lower than at the start of the war, but Russia has been buying lots and lots of Iranian prop missiles (drones) to supplement and allow for the continued attacks on civilian infrastructure, primarily against the civilian electric grid.
Latest US assistance package for Ukraine continues the trend of dwindling, inadequate support for Ukraine;
The US has been giving Ukraine more than enough to sustain its stockpiles and maintain its current needs.
US government procurement numbers over the course of the next 2-5 years indicates that at no time in the near future will the US be capable of producing let alone supplying Ukraine with the number of weapons and ammunition it requires;
Laughably false and totally ignorant of the tens of billions of dollars in extra funding Biden got to massively increase production.
While Russian production data is not available, the fact that Russia's stockpiles and military were configured for large-scale protracted and intense combat suggests its military industrial output is likewise configured for such demands;
lol no, Russia was not so configured. Russia has only been able to sustain thus far because it had lots of cold war stockpiles. We've already seen Russia being forced to dig up 1960s cold war tanks out of storage to replace losses. We have also seen that Russia has had to take lots of ammo from Belarus. Russia has been scraping the barrel in many ways.
Personally, I don't think Russia will run out of ammo, only that it will be forced to ration ammo, meaning that the days of June 2022 where Russia was firing in the high tens of thousands of artillery shells per day are long gone. Russia will never be able to return to those levels for any sustained amount of time.
The Western media is now admitting that Ukraine can neither win, nor is there any moral imperative to ensure that it does.
Of course Ukraine can win. Can it win through decisive military offensives? Probably not, but so what? Afghanistan won its war with Russia, despite having no significant offensive capability at all, unlike Ukraine. Chechnya also won its 1st war against Russia, not by decisively defeating it on the battlefield, but merely by outlasting the russians and humiliating them with some guerilla warfare.
Russia's losses and humiliation in the present war against Ukraine far far outstrip its losses against Afghanistan and Chechnya. Russia's tank inventory has been decimated to the point where it's down to being forced to use T-62s, a 1960s mothballed tank. Russia's artillery inventory has been sharply reduced from its May and June highs. Russia's air forces continue to slowly suffer irreplaceable losses and bleed, when Russia could only afford to buy something like 10 new fighters a year. Russia's helicopter attack forces have been decimated and are not combat effective since they simply can't survive against MANPADS. Russia hasn't been able to use its air force at all except with standoff weapons.
In the war of attrition, Russia has been losing far more, and has far less capacity to adsorb losses. While on paper, Russia is "bigger" than Ukraine, Ukraine is all-in on this war and will fight to the last, whereas Russians are not happy with the war and have gotten nothing but demoralizing bad news for half a year now. Russian sons are dying at high rates, and are going home maimed. Russia has already resorted to emptying to prisons for manpower.
Can Russia sustain anything other than a Korean-War-style locked down defensive line with little to no offensive action on either side? Not at all. Can Ukraine sustain the same? Easily, because Western support for Ukraine will continue indefinitely. The West's economic depth is many orders of magnitude greater than Russia's. Ukraine's manpower depth is far greater than Russia's available manpower since Russia cannot fully mobilize.
I thought it may be interesting to introduce a non-mainstream commentator’s analysis about the Ukraine war here, because it’s interesting to see the stark contrast between Brian’s conclusions and those in the MSM. Copied from the show notes: Russia continues its war of attrition - focusing on exhausting and overwhelming critical Ukrainian defenses around Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine/western Russia;
Youtuber is Brian Berletic, an American who claims he lives in Thailand. He works for the Russian government and has had his accounts banned from Facebook and other social media sites for “coordinated inauthentic behaviour.” He was also suspended from Twitter as a propaganda account. For a long time he lied about his name and claimed to be "Tony Cartalucci", but later switched to Brian Berletic. His social media pages trace back to both thailand & Moscow.
He is a paid Russian agent. He has done collab videos with known paid CCP agents such as Daniel Dumbrill. So everything he says should be taken as simple mouthpiece regurgitation of Russian state media talking points.
And, of course, he has been shilling for Russia since day 1 of the war.
Relzung, the OP reposting the Russian agent here, has a post history of pure Russian shilling.
At this point I can only laugh, because all of this is just copium at this point. It is totally divorced from reality. This dude is just giving false talking points to soothe the pain of the people who were rooting for Russia.
Russia has been doing this for months and made 0 gains. Bakhmut remains in Ukrainian hands, and it is obviously so well fortified at this point that Russia has no hope of taking it. The only result of Russia's attacks have been lots and lots of dead Russians and lost equipment. An entrenched defender has a huge advantage.
The fact that Russia keeps doubling down on stupid failure at Bakhmut proves that they simply don't have what it takes to win the war. They don't fight with any intelligence or grand strategy. Instead, the only things Russia has proven to be good at in this war are (1) rapid retreats, and (2) extensive entrenchments in some areas. Russia has had 0 offensive success anywhere since the beginning of July, which is now over 5 months ago. Even then, it was a slow and grinding capture of a very small amount of land around Lysychans'k. And that was their only success after their initial surge in February.
I follow a lot of big Ukraine commentators on Twitter and nobody is saying Russian missile stockpiles are depleted. They are much lower than at the start of the war, but Russia has been buying lots and lots of Iranian prop missiles (drones) to supplement and allow for the continued attacks on civilian infrastructure, primarily against the civilian electric grid.
The US has been giving Ukraine more than enough to sustain its stockpiles and maintain its current needs.
Laughably false and totally ignorant of the tens of billions of dollars in extra funding Biden got to massively increase production.
lol no, Russia was not so configured. Russia has only been able to sustain thus far because it had lots of cold war stockpiles. We've already seen Russia being forced to dig up 1960s cold war tanks out of storage to replace losses. We have also seen that Russia has had to take lots of ammo from Belarus. Russia has been scraping the barrel in many ways.
Personally, I don't think Russia will run out of ammo, only that it will be forced to ration ammo, meaning that the days of June 2022 where Russia was firing in the high tens of thousands of artillery shells per day are long gone. Russia will never be able to return to those levels for any sustained amount of time.
Of course Ukraine can win. Can it win through decisive military offensives? Probably not, but so what? Afghanistan won its war with Russia, despite having no significant offensive capability at all, unlike Ukraine. Chechnya also won its 1st war against Russia, not by decisively defeating it on the battlefield, but merely by outlasting the russians and humiliating them with some guerilla warfare.
Russia's losses and humiliation in the present war against Ukraine far far outstrip its losses against Afghanistan and Chechnya. Russia's tank inventory has been decimated to the point where it's down to being forced to use T-62s, a 1960s mothballed tank. Russia's artillery inventory has been sharply reduced from its May and June highs. Russia's air forces continue to slowly suffer irreplaceable losses and bleed, when Russia could only afford to buy something like 10 new fighters a year. Russia's helicopter attack forces have been decimated and are not combat effective since they simply can't survive against MANPADS. Russia hasn't been able to use its air force at all except with standoff weapons.
In the war of attrition, Russia has been losing far more, and has far less capacity to adsorb losses. While on paper, Russia is "bigger" than Ukraine, Ukraine is all-in on this war and will fight to the last, whereas Russians are not happy with the war and have gotten nothing but demoralizing bad news for half a year now. Russian sons are dying at high rates, and are going home maimed. Russia has already resorted to emptying to prisons for manpower.
Can Russia sustain anything other than a Korean-War-style locked down defensive line with little to no offensive action on either side? Not at all. Can Ukraine sustain the same? Easily, because Western support for Ukraine will continue indefinitely. The West's economic depth is many orders of magnitude greater than Russia's. Ukraine's manpower depth is far greater than Russia's available manpower since Russia cannot fully mobilize.
We’ll see.