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There will never be another 'wave' election again, at least assuming the media/internet narrative machine doesn't significantly change. This should have been obvious after covid, which would have united the country 20 years ago, divided us. The culture war is too deep for there to be 'wave' elections.
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Candidate quality is almost entirely irrelevant at this point. Candidates can be mentally disabled, or literally hide in bunkers and never talk to the public. Totally fine now! If Trump runs again, I honestly think he'll do better if he never spoke to the media or made any public appearances the entire campaign. The only thing that matters is spending and persuasive media narratives. Doing less as a candidate actually gives less ammo for the other side.
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Campaigns focused on specific fears are the best way to bring people to vote. This is why Zeldin did well in NY despite so many right-leaning people fleeing the state over the course of the pandemic - a single-minded focus on crime and a clear culprit (the left). Abortion and 'jan 6' works like this for the left. Yes, the right has inflation, but the right didn't tie inflation in the same way to the actions of the left. The right's argument was basically just...inflation sucks, so vote for us. Not, inflation sucks, and it was caused by the democrats, and they will cause more of it.
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The RNC would rather lose than support a Peter Thiel/new right candidates. Expect more losses if this civil war continues. Doesn't bother me one bit though.
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Trafalgar is a trash pollster that literally just took other polls and slapped a +5 repub modifier on their results. Works when other pollsters are all missing right-wing votes like in 2016-20. Other pollsters seem to have fixed their issues this election though, exposing trafalgar as a fake pollster.
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Early voting also helps Democrats by magnifying their get-out-the-vote machine. If you have 100 paid volunteers driving people to the polls and now you have 10 early voting days you have the equivalent of 1000 drivers.
But their main advantage now is that they've created a system where individual D voters cheat and everybody else is technically not cheating. Democrats get several ballots sent to them because of dirty rolls, they fill them out and send them in with fake signature, signature is not checked, and that's another D vote.
How does the law even stop this? A sting for some random dude that might have sent in somebody else's ballot last election? You'd probably have to detain them while they were in the process of mailing them, and then you'll need evidence they actually signed it. And now you've spent a million dollars from your budget to stop a whole half dozen illegal votes at best and they probably will get off at trial anyway for reasonable doubt.
It's not illegal for the election workers to not check the signature or set the computer to 5% match when the accepted standard everywhere is say 80% match. Allowing 100 ballots in a row with the exact same signature, that's not illegal. It's the person who signed them that broke the law. It's impossible to prove at any kind of scale, because the parts where ballots come together at scale are not against the law.
This country does more vetting of people buying beer at a 7/11 than of voters. It's fucked.
I'm of the opinion that all voting should be in-person, on election day, with extremely limited exceptions for military stationed out of state and invalids. And those should have robust identity verification.
Make election day a holiday like other countries and there's no excuse not to vote. If you can't be bothered to drag your ass to a polling station, your opinion doesn't matter.