A 2010 size swing is sadly going to be difficult to achieve even though the 2022 environment is truly much worse for the Dems due to the three following reasons:

1. The Republicans in 2010 started out with 179 seats and gained 63 seats which lead to a majority of 242 seats.

This year the Republicans already are starting with 212 seats. To get back to a majority of 242 seats, they only need to gain 30 seats.

A lot of the seats they gained in 2010 were generally Republican held seats they only lost due to the large Obama 2008 electoral win over McCain. This year they are starting off from a much better position so there are less realistically winnable seats.

2. The Democrat and Republican coalitions have both changed dramatically since 2010.

Democrats in 2010 used to have more rural voters and less suburban voters while Republicans in 2010 used to have more suburban voters and less rural voters.

Republicans in 2022 rely more now on rural voters and less on suburban voters. Democrats in 2022 rely more now on urban voters and suburban voters and they barely have any rural voters.

Rural turnout generally tends to be lower in midterm years than in presidential years which is a slight disadvantage for the party that relies more on rural voters.

Suburban voters also generally donate lots of money to political parties.

Dems are benefiting from that fundraising this year and thus Dems have much more money for campaigns in 2022 that they just didn't have in 2010.

If the rurals turn out massively this year, it would help a lot in mitigating coalition disadvantages! Republicans will likely see some suburban voter reversion this year in places like the DFW suburbs in Texas and Maricopa suburbs in Arizona which is good news!

3. The country is also more polarized in 2022 than 2010. Voters in 2010 were more likely to vote split ticket in statewide races vs district races vs federal races. This year most people will likely vote the same way down ballot that they vote for governor races which limits Republican house seat gains in blue states.

Good news is that I still expect the Republicans to have a very solid wave election year(anywhere from R+3 -R+5)

2010 was an amazing R+6.8 year which would be hard to replicate this year.