From Russia with optimism (curb your pessimism)
(twitter.com)
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And she was right. Even Ukraine enforced the no flight zone with their old Soviet SAMs and fighters (Su-27 at best), and more recently a few dozen half century old German Gepard SPAAGs, for NATO it would be just no contest whatsoever.
The only real long-range aerial (conventional) threat these days are the Iranian drones, from an actually developed country. A rumor says 20 Iranian advisors died in one recent HIMARS strike. They also get better at shooting them down after the initial shock, even as Israel still refuses to help (Israel is well prepared to counter Iranian weapons, also Israel keeps arming Azerbaijan).