That doesn't seem to have been the case recently in Europe. In the recent Swedish election, turnout was down 5% and the right won. In the Dutch local elections in March, turnout was down roughly 4%, and there was a huge surge in support for localist and regional parties, as well as the FvD and the PVV. I understand that 2 data points don't make a pattern, but it seems like the same thing is happening in Italy.

Traditionally, it has been as I stated. It may have changed in recent times, but I actually don't expect it. The backing for traditional parties is generally a very loyal voter base. The populists are the most changing. E.g. rain was always taken as a bad sign for populists, and a good sign for Merkel-type conservatives.

Anyway, I can't say if this is still true. I'd say those outcomes are not necessarily related to turnout but to changing political circumstances.

Georgia Meloni actually referred to herself as the "right-wing Tony Blair" whatever that's supposed to mean, and she'll have to govern along with Salvini, who cucked for the vaccine passports, and with fucking Berlusconi. I'm really not all that optimistic.

If you expect to be pleased on all counts, you'll be disappointed. But they're probably going to to some really good stuff on immigration.