China on Wednesday published its first white paper on Taiwan since Xi Jinping came to power, refusing to rule out force in its bid for unification and blaming the island’s “independence seeking” ruling party for deepening the dispute with Beijing. The paper, which stated China “will tolerate no foreign interference in Taiwan,” comes days after China held unprecedented military drills around the island in the wake of a visit to Taipei by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Buckle up boys, it's tankie time. https://archive.ph/rRDyb
Resolving the Taiwan question and realizing China's complete reunification is a shared aspiration of all the sons and daughters of the Chinese nation. It is indispensable for the realization of China's rejuvenation. It is also a historic mission of the Communist Party of China (CPC). The CPC, the Chinese government, and the Chinese people have striven for decades to achieve this goal.
Nobody cares except communist hard liners and their simps. Also as a fyi, the CCP recently decided that everyone should call it the "CPC" now instead of the traditional CCP, so if you see anyone online using the "CPC" label, they are outing themselves as a tankie. The CCP's name in chinese is 中國共產黨 which breaks down to 中國 = Zhōngguó = China & 共產 = gòng chǎn = communist & 黨 = dǎng = party. So literally "China Communist Party".
The Chinese government has published two previous white papers on Taiwan. One was The Taiwan Question and Reunification of China in August 1993, and the other was The One-China Principle and the Taiwan Issue in February 2000. These two white papers provided a comprehensive and systematic elaboration of the basic principles and policies regarding the resolution of the Taiwan question. This new white paper is being released to reiterate the fact that Taiwan is part of China, to demonstrate the resolve of the CPC and the Chinese people and their commitment to national reunification, and to emphasize the position and policies of the CPC and the Chinese government in the new era.
In other words, to threaten and posture.
I. Taiwan Is Part of China - This Is an Indisputable Fact. Taiwan has belonged to China since ancient times. This statement has a sound basis in history and jurisprudence.
In reality, Imperial China basically ignored Taiwan most of the time, and Taiwan ended up as a pirate haven. [The Japanese eventually invaded Taiwan to retaliate over some Taiwanese headhunters.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_invasion_of_Taiwan_(1874)) Later, Japan made Taiwan a colony, which it remained until the end of WW2 when the Nationalists took over.
We are one China, and Taiwan is part of China. This is an indisputable fact supported by history and the law. Taiwan has never been a state; its status as part of China is unalterable. Any attempt to distort these facts and dispute or deny the one-China principle will end in failure.
So this is pure delusion, just like Putin's little rant right before he invaded Ukraine, and is stated for the same purpose (to rationalize military aggression against a sovereign state).
First, the one-China principle must be upheld, and no individual or force should be allowed to separate Taiwan from China.
They're already separate, and the "One China" policy is a fraud meant to placate the CCP.
Second, it is imperative to strive for the wellbeing of all Chinese people, including those in Taiwan, and to realize the aspirations of all Chinese people for a better life.
By bombing them and starving them into submission with a blockade? lol.
Fourth, it is necessary to have the courage and skill to fight against any force that attempts to undermine China's sovereignty and territorial integrity or stands in the way of its reunification. Fifth, extensive unity and solidarity must be upheld to mobilize all factors to fight against any force that would divide the country, and pool strengths to advance national reunification.
Just threats and the CCP hard liners wanting to full mobilize for any war. Good luck with that.
We maintain that after peaceful reunification, Taiwan may continue its current social system and enjoy a high degree of autonomy in accordance with the law. The two social systems will develop side by side for a long time to come.
Everyone saw how that worked out for Hong Kong. We all know it's a fraud now.
Separatism will plunge Taiwan into the abyss and bring nothing but disaster to the island.
Annnnnnd there's the threats.
Use of force would be the last resort taken under compelling circumstances. We will only be forced to take drastic measures to respond to the provocation of separatist elements or external forces should they ever cross our red lines.
Like Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan.
The US should abide by the one-China principle, deal with Taiwan-related issues in a prudent and proper manner, stand by its previous commitments, and stop supporting Taiwan separatists.
"separatists".
"In a biannual update to its surveys on core political attitudes in Taiwan, National Chengchi University's Election Study Center (ESC) found only 1.3 percent of respondents wanted unification with mainland China "as soon as possible,""
Anyway basically the white paper was almost entirely empty platitudes and the same old bullshit.
It's their best hope. Binkov's assessment, frankly makes a lot of sense. The full power of the Chinese government being brought to bear against Taiwan really means that Taiwan is in real fucking danger. Unlike with Ukraine, I'm not so sure that Taiwan can rely on western financial investment or embezzlement to bail them out. WEF goblins are not invested in Russia the way that they are invested in the success of China.
A year warfare without US intervention could absolutely bring Taiwan to it's knees, and they really still do not have the level of mobilization and armamentation that they need.
Make no mistake, the US will stay out of that war if the Chinese pay off the right people. That means Japan, South Korea, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are the only real allies that Taiwan can depend on. And either none of them join, or all of them join. South Korea and Japan might want to save Taiwan, but if Taiwan can't prove that she can stand alone, they aren't going to risk provoking a larger war with China.
In fact, that is what the US is going to be doing: pretending to play "peace maker" and trying to "prevent the war from escalating into a regional conflict". Likely by removing the 7th fleet from the area of operations to "reduce tensions".
Taiwan has a chance if she can last for a good while until either a new regime takes power in the US, or until she can convince some of the other states to join. Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan are all classic Chinese enemies and would love to give her a bloody nose, and (frankly) Vietnam's the most brazen of all of them. India won't want to start a full-scale conflict with China, but economic pressure would certainly help. I think Indonesia is the most over-looked option here. Indonesia's issues with China's expansion, and the prevalence of Islam in Indonesia, could lead some of the population to see it as a Jihad against both Communism, and as a reprisal to the Uyghur genocide.
This means that if Taiwan can be blockaded, which is actually likely if the US won't get involved, she might actually be lost. If she can keep the seas open long enough, and fight hard enough, she might get enough tactical support from other countries to keep the war going long enough to regain political support from the US.
Let me just say that Binkov is a total idiot in general. All he does is make a list of how much stuff each side has and then he says whoever has more stuff would win. That is not how wars work at all. If it was, Israel would have lost all its wars. Germany would have gotten annihilated in Barbarossa, etc. The whole idea that you can ignore strategy, tactics, doctrine, and other factors, and just fight a war on a spreadsheet, is very commie/Russian.
Binkov over-estimates how effective chinese long range missile strikes would be. We confirmed from Russia firing thousands of missiles at Ukraine that these strikes are not very effective. Large static targets that cannot be repaired can get taken out, but it's easy enough to simply not present such targets in a war. Airfields can be repaired easily and hardened against missile strikes.
Binkov simply ignores the fact that Taiwanese SAMs are superior to the PLAAF. Ukraine, with far inferior Soviet era SAMs, and fewer of them, managed to totally stop the Russian air force (which is technologically superior to the PLAAAF) after a few days of inflicting unsustainable losses. Taiwan has many hundreds of PATRIOT SAM rounds, and other sophisticated long range SAMs like its Sky Bow III. It also has a lot of medium range systems, Sea Sparrows, and thousands of Stingers & Sidewinders, which would make it impossible for the PLAAF to operate over Taiwan without suffering unsustainable losses.
So the PLAAF will be forced to operate at stand-off ranges and will not be able to carry out strikes with things like laser guided bombs. Cruise missiles will for the most part get shot down.
Any PLAN ships trying to enforce a blockade outside their air cover in the Strait, so they'd be highly vulnerable to Taiwanese F-16 Viper sorties launching Harpoons at them. In fact, I submit that the PLAN simply doesn't have the capability of either operating within F-16 range and surviving or fighting off Harpoon missiles. Their only cope would be to try to operate far away from Taiwan, but the PLAN doesn't have the ships to cover that much ocean. Only the USN can pull off something like that. China's carrier group is still a joke at this point, and will be for some time. It would not be able to survive a Taiwanese F16 sortie, let alone multiple waves firing dozens of Harpoons.
This is all academic, though, because no other nation would bow down and submit to any Chinese blockade of Taiwan. The US, Japan, Australia, and others, would simply defy the blockade right away, and the Chinese would back down out of fear of getting ganged up on and getting their shit pushed in.
All that said, I agree with you that Taiwan would be in real danger if it gets complacent, as every year that passes, the military spending gap between China and Taiwan widens. EVENTUALLY the Chinese will fix their weaknesses and become a much more dangerous threat. That is why I want the US to confront China NOW and force their hand rather than waiting until China becomes far more dangerous in 5-10 years.
I don't agree with you at all that the US will "stay out" of anything. That's nonsense. I'm American. No Republican would cuck out Taiwan to China. Almost no Democrat would, either, since Democrats slavishly follow polls, and polls overwhelmingly favor helping Taiwan. US support for Taiwan was at its highest level ever when polled in 2021 and a strong majority favor sending in the US Navy to shut down any attempt at a Chinese blockade. If any US President tried to limp dick Taiwan, people like me would be in the streets, and we would raise hell. The fact that Taiwan is the semiconductor capital of the world means the media is saying 24/7 that Taiwan is indispensable to the US economy. So I couldn't disagree with you more. Most Americans never even heard of Ukraine until this year, and yet they overwhelmingly rallied to support it. Support for Taiwan is MUCH stronger than that.
So you don't watch his videos.
No you didn't. Ukrainian Air Defense was crippled, allowing for helicopter strikes into the country. What stopped Russian Air Dominance was an infinite supply of infantry based anti-aircraft weapons. None of which will be sent to Taiwan. Not from the US, not from the UK, not from Canada.
Never underestimate the level of losses Communists are prepared to take. Russia lost 20 million against the Germans. Vietnam lost 5 million against the Americans. Russia and China lost 180,000 against each other. China lost over 300,000 against the Americans. And we don't want to even think about the Cultural Revolution.
Communists are prepared to kill every man, woman, and child on Earth to solidify their power.
Worse, there is a practical purpose to killing people. It drives down the costs of the welfare state, and creates political stability for those that don't deploy (being kept loyal). Under such conditions, the losses that China may be prepared to take could be absolutely astronomical.
Taiwan will only be able to support piracy until their treasuries run dry. After that, no one is coming who isn't willing to fight China head on. The only people that would even consider doing it by themselves, are the vietnamese.
You've got it backwards. The chinese economy is already starting to fall apart. If they want a war to secure themselves politically, they can't wait a decade. China needs this war sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, the US is damn near combat ineffective due to it's political situation. It's already basically out of the fight. A couple phone calls to DC, and they aren't coming in until at least 2024. After the midterms, they'll probably be a Republican house, a Democratic senate, and a Democratic president. Starting a war early in 2023 is actually a good option, since it should be long enough to keep the Americans from intervening until the situation is dramatically different.
You could say that about a lot of things, like anything related to survivors of 9/11. But we know that's wrong. The only thing that matters is political utility, and personal finance. The finance and political utility are controlled by China. If the Republicans were in power, there is a risk that the anti-War / Libertarian factions might consider staying out of it; but there is a 100% chance that they would be accused of "starting WW3" by the entirety of the Left. If the Democrats were in power, their bread is buttered by China, sometimes literally. They will not go to war to save Taiwan.
I do watch his videos, actually
UKR air defense was not crippled and is still going strong. Russian aircraft are too scared to fly in UKR airspace at all, they only fly around the border, fire off their missiles, and run away.
UKR MANPADS mean nothing to high altitude aircraft, so you're wrong.
Taiwan has thousands of stinger missiles.
Communists in modern times can't take unlimited casualties like the Soviets could under Stalin. Their people would revolt. Russia can't even mobilize.
I don't think the Chinese economy is going to fall apart without outside pressure. It had bad shocks in 2015 and still recovered fine, which it always will as long as foreign trade supports it.
The MANPADS thing essentially played into Russia's own sub-optimal ordnance mix. With low quantities of stand-off weapons the Russian air force is having to fly into MANPAD range to get it's shots - of unguided weapons - off. Don't know if the same thing applies to China.