OK, who wants in on a War Pool?
I bet that they'll do it the morning of Feb 1, just before dawn.
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Russia has already invaded Ukraine. They've simply done so while wearing different uniforms.
Russia wanted the port of Sevastopol, as they have always wanted it, for literal centuries (they were already leasing it). They got it. They have the Crimean peninsula once more and it likely won't change hands again in our lifetimes.
I agree, though, that Russia will not invade the rest of Ukraine. Russia wants buffer states between it and NATO. It does not want NATO all along its borders. This is as simple to understand as why the US went to Defcon 2 over soviet missiles in Cuba.
But the west seems to have this idea that Russia has no reason to freak out, when the west would absolutely freak out just the same if Russian military influence were expanding toward us.
They wore their normal uniforms just unmarked except the thin white armbands. They first wore these armbands when storming government buildings in Kabul while dressed in Afghan uniforms. Since then it's happened often in various countries, including their own.