I think the U.S. economy and potentially many fiat currencies are going to collapse this year.
The past two years of nonsense cannot logically continue, especially with a potentially shrinking U.S. labor force (we will see what the labor numbers are tomorrow, every death or injury of a young person at this point is a huge, huge problem). I know that people say that those coming over the U.S.-Mexico border are our replacements, but they are not as intelligent or skilled as us. They cannot produce what we produce currently. Businesses will continue to die out. The supply chains are already in disarray. Large corporations have significant vacancies, and many small businesses have little to no help. This is not sustainable, and I do not even understand how it is has been sustained up to this point.
No matter what the Supreme Court does with the challenges to the mandates, a titanic collapse is coming. Shortages are already seen in stores and by factory workers. Prices are in flux. Everything is uncertain. Yet, the stock market is at record highs. Bizarre world we live in.
What's this "yet"?
You do realize that equities are more like commodities than currencies, right?
Yeah it's a bit like saying: "Inflation is soaring, and yet the price of gold is going up".
Of course it is.
The market is up because the economy is in shambles. What else are you supposed to do with your money? You could buy crypto for more volatility. Or gold for less. But right now stock in Apple doesn't feel so much less safe than gold. The writing's on the wall - a handful of companies are going to own the future, and their value is only going to go up. If it goes down it's because something happened that's making everything go down.
In a strong economy there are many more things people do with their capital. High risk investments, VC funds, real estate, creating a business, etc.
In an uncertain economy people are keeping their capital in relatively low risk securities. With inflation as high as it is, that's the safest way to not lose so much - otherwise at 7% inflation you're losing half your wealth in just a decade.
Exactly. People are dubious about the country, the economy, and the dollar, but the smart money knows that the companies, for the most part, will be fine. Ownership is power, and the companies own a lot. Whatever may happen to the dollar, owning a share of those companies will give you a cut in whatever is to come.
We're not anywhere close to a communist revolution that would put the companies in jeopardy. Rather, we're close to a conflict between social statists and libertarians, and the companies can live with either of those outcomes.