It would be the result of a complete breakdown of federal control and the inevitable results of that.
What I think is the most likely scenario is a states' rights coalition forming to ignore the federal government. It's already happening on a small scale with things like sanctuary cities, legalized marijuana and 2nd Amendment sanctuaries. Or possibly damning evidence from the election audits. How it sparks is outside the scope of this question though.
Once that happens then you'll see the cities go up in flames first. It'll be the Floyd riots on steroids in any city that has a large black presence. Without the threat of the federal government to keep them in check militias will form and start going to work. I don't think you'll see much wholesale slaughter as most people in the US just don't have the stomach for it. You'll see massive refugee populations fleeing from the central part of the US to the coasts and Canada.
Mexico might move on the SW states in order to 'protect Mexican nationals living in the US' but I doubt it since they can't even keep their own shit together. Canada will send troops South who will try to do anything to assist the feds in restoring peace. Other NATO countries might also.
The biggest wild cards will be China and Russia. I don't think they'll make any major moves on the continental US but China will likely move on Taiwan and Russia might move on Ukraine. They will definitely send SPECOPS troops to train and supply anyone they can in the breakaway states. Russia has already promised that in the past.
I think the end result would be a splitting of the US into at least 3 parts. The East coast states, the West coast states and the central states. There just isn't enough manpower to fight a protracted insurgency in the interior of the US. I see it happening a lot like the breakup of the USSR, maybe a few small scale battles here and there but the end result will be a dissolution of the country.
I don't think a race war would happen on its own.
It would be the result of a complete breakdown of federal control and the inevitable results of that.
What I think is the most likely scenario is a states' rights coalition forming to ignore the federal government. It's already happening on a small scale with things like sanctuary cities, legalized marijuana and 2nd Amendment sanctuaries. Or possibly damning evidence from the election audits. How it sparks is outside the scope of this question though.
Once that happens then you'll see the cities go up in flames first. It'll be the Floyd riots on steroids in any city that has a large black presence. Without the threat of the federal government to keep them in check militias will form and start going to work. I don't think you'll see much wholesale slaughter as most people in the US just don't have the stomach for it. You'll see massive refugee populations fleeing from the central part of the US to the coasts and Canada.
Mexico might move on the SW states in order to 'protect Mexican nationals living in the US' but I doubt it since they can't even keep their own shit together. Canada will send troops South who will try to do anything to assist the feds in restoring peace. Other NATO countries might also.
The biggest wild cards will be China and Russia. I don't think they'll make any major moves on the continental US but China will likely move on Taiwan and Russia might move on Ukraine. They will definitely send SPECOPS troops to train and supply anyone they can in the breakaway states. Russia has already promised that in the past.
I think the end result would be a splitting of the US into at least 3 parts. The East coast states, the West coast states and the central states. There just isn't enough manpower to fight a protracted insurgency in the interior of the US. I see it happening a lot like the breakup of the USSR, maybe a few small scale battles here and there but the end result will be a dissolution of the country.