So I'm looking for some statistics and sadly a lot of it comes from psychological sciences and pro trans organizations both of which I don't trust to be objective about it.
We observed no increase in suicide death risk over time and even a decrease in suicide death risk in trans women. However, the suicide risk in transgender people is higher than in the general population and seems to occur during every stage of transitioning.
Overall I'd say these numbers are inconclusive. Certainly not something I'd recommend to anyone dealing with this issue as a means to stave off suicide. If transitioning was a solution, I'd expect to see more pronounced increase in overall happiness which these suicide numbers do not convince me is taking place.
(Interestingly enough MtF kill themselves at nearly triple the rate of FtM, which is similar to suicide rate proportions in men and women overall.)
If I can get philosophical about the topic, while overall happiness is a goal in life, how you achieve said happiness is also important. Even if going through surgery and living your life as the opposite sex were to increase your happiness, I'd have to question the price you'd be paying for it. To name two examples out of many, MtF can not get pregnant. FtM have a weaker bone structure and are smaller framed. Both of these things are real and immutable. If you live your life as if you were a woman, but unable to have children, that affects your quality of life. If you live your life as if you were a man, but are physically weaker and more prone to injuries, that affects your quality of life to. Certain life occupations are much harder for you if not outright impossible. This disassociation from reality is a price that puts 'happiness as the goal of life' into question. It's not just being happy, it's how you choose to be happy and what makes you happy.
Instead, how about the following alternative:
Accept reality. Live life according to the hand you were dealt. It may not be what you want, it may feel wrong, but reality does not bend to your will. Maybe you'll grow out of it, maybe it'll get better with time, maybe it will not. I know this isn't possible to all people and sadly some people we have no answer for, but this notion that a transition surgery as a good default solution to people struggling with this is counter productive and destructive.
That's not inconclusive, of course it's going to be higher than the general population, but it's still lower after transitioning. That's the goal.
MtF killing themselves more makes sense since the changes from testosterone are permanent. So a female can transition into a man relatively easily and naturally - voice and all, whereas a male can't transition into a woman easily at all. I can assure you, you would never guess that the average FtM was a FtM at all. But anyone can guess who a MtF is. And the insane left refuses to acknowledge that it's not equal and that they can't just use the same things.
While I agree with most of what you're saying for a mentally healthy person, your "alternative" is equivalent of telling a heavily depressed person to just be happy. Both of my trans friends (both FtM) acknowledge that dysphoria is a serious illness, so it's not like they agree with the insane pro-trans establishment that refuses to acknowledge it as an illness. Transition essentially helps a trans person go from a severely mentally ill person to a relatively stable person who can function in society - something I've seen first hand (which I would have called anecdotal in the past, but science is compromised so anecdotal evidence is all we have).
So I'm looking for some statistics and sadly a lot of it comes from psychological sciences and pro trans organizations both of which I don't trust to be objective about it.
I found this https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7317390/ which includes 49 suicides (0.6% of participants). Hard to draw much for pre and post but they conclude:
Overall I'd say these numbers are inconclusive. Certainly not something I'd recommend to anyone dealing with this issue as a means to stave off suicide. If transitioning was a solution, I'd expect to see more pronounced increase in overall happiness which these suicide numbers do not convince me is taking place.
(Interestingly enough MtF kill themselves at nearly triple the rate of FtM, which is similar to suicide rate proportions in men and women overall.)
If I can get philosophical about the topic, while overall happiness is a goal in life, how you achieve said happiness is also important. Even if going through surgery and living your life as the opposite sex were to increase your happiness, I'd have to question the price you'd be paying for it. To name two examples out of many, MtF can not get pregnant. FtM have a weaker bone structure and are smaller framed. Both of these things are real and immutable. If you live your life as if you were a woman, but unable to have children, that affects your quality of life. If you live your life as if you were a man, but are physically weaker and more prone to injuries, that affects your quality of life to. Certain life occupations are much harder for you if not outright impossible. This disassociation from reality is a price that puts 'happiness as the goal of life' into question. It's not just being happy, it's how you choose to be happy and what makes you happy.
Instead, how about the following alternative:
Accept reality. Live life according to the hand you were dealt. It may not be what you want, it may feel wrong, but reality does not bend to your will. Maybe you'll grow out of it, maybe it'll get better with time, maybe it will not. I know this isn't possible to all people and sadly some people we have no answer for, but this notion that a transition surgery as a good default solution to people struggling with this is counter productive and destructive.
That's not inconclusive, of course it's going to be higher than the general population, but it's still lower after transitioning. That's the goal.
MtF killing themselves more makes sense since the changes from testosterone are permanent. So a female can transition into a man relatively easily and naturally - voice and all, whereas a male can't transition into a woman easily at all. I can assure you, you would never guess that the average FtM was a FtM at all. But anyone can guess who a MtF is. And the insane left refuses to acknowledge that it's not equal and that they can't just use the same things.
While I agree with most of what you're saying for a mentally healthy person, your "alternative" is equivalent of telling a heavily depressed person to just be happy. Both of my trans friends (both FtM) acknowledge that dysphoria is a serious illness, so it's not like they agree with the insane pro-trans establishment that refuses to acknowledge it as an illness. Transition essentially helps a trans person go from a severely mentally ill person to a relatively stable person who can function in society - something I've seen first hand (which I would have called anecdotal in the past, but science is compromised so anecdotal evidence is all we have).