Place your bets KIA - Will Trump still be in office on January 21?

posted 4 years ago by free_speech_centrist 4 years ago by free_speech_centrist +28 / -4

I don't remember where I read this, but there's this idea that the correctness of your understanding of the world can be demonstrated by your ability to predict the outcome.

With that spirit, how good is KIA's understanding? Will Trump be on office the day after inauguration or will it be Biden?

This question is not who you think SHOULD be in office, just who WILL be.

1 vote per person, and no you can't vote for your grandma.

My vote: Trump will still be there.

I previously posited here that Biden would easily take the election, and I was wrong, but then again so was everyone else in that thread.

But I have several reasons for thinking Trump will still be in office after inauguration. Redemption?

My reasoning:

He tweeted that there was 2.7 million fraudulent votes. Unlike many people here, I don't have a high opinion of Trump, but even I don't think he's that irresponsible to tweet something so massive unless there was a shred of truth to it.
Maybe his chances of each state isn't that great, but if Trump can conclusively prove through the court even 1 state to be systematically fraudulent, that would give him more than enough weight with conservatives to do literally anything with the election.
All 5 main contested states' senates are republican controlled.
And finally, because he's demonstrated that he's willing to go nuclear to get what he wants. Whether he remains in office much longer after inauguration day remains to be seen.

Current Tally:

Trump: 11 me, LaptopWillEatThisAcc, Etherwaze, ArtemisFoul, VerGreenEyes, TheImpossible1, netruephilosoraptor, anon12, cccpneveragain, deriliction, TentElephant

Biden: 11 OBRIENMUSTSUFFER, kcc446, GallantEnd, SR388-SAX, Galean, Knife-totingRat, peterlocke, lolfail9001, Guy_Incognito76, Piroko, 666sadfrogs

Biden/Pence: 1 ernsithe (mmkay)

Neither: rfu12

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– VerGreeneyes 8 points 4 years ago +8 / -0

If the relevant states manage to hold off or overthrow any legal injunctions and get their electors to vote faithfully (which feels like the wrong word to use here), then Trump is fucked.

But there are a multitude of ways for him to pull through:

Hand recounts could be significantly different this time due to the vote counting machine shenanigans.
If Giuliani is right and not allowing Republicans to watch the counting process is illegal, then getting all or a portion of mail-in votes discarded is entirely possible.
Other types of auditing could prove further fraud (though I'm not too positive on their chances of proving fraud now that all the ballots are mixed up) and cause more ballots to be discarded (either directly or through a court-ordered adjustment of the count).
Republican state legislators could appoint Republican electors who choose to elect Trump.
If the process gets stalled long enough, SCOTUS could punt it to House delegations, with 1 delegate per state (and Republicans have a majority of the states).

So pending any legal victories, right now I give him 50/50 odds (you can count that as Trump +1 in your tally though). If we start getting favorable results like the hand recount in Georgia showing large differences or other legal victories, bump that up to 80%.

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