It's going to happen.

It absolutely is. The only question is whether the big content providers will manage to wrap it up in so much red tape that they can still exploit the talent without letting the general public make their own stuff.

Every few years or so, there's a new fad that 'will change everything'... and it never does

You mean liker personal computers? Or that "Internet" thing they had a few years back?

I think you'd be on safer ground with "hardly ever does".