I have been thinking about finally upgrading to a PS5 or Xbox Series X. However, consoles usually only last 5 years before the next generation comes out. Granted, the 8th lasted 7 or 8 years, and the 9th was hurt by the COVID lockdown... But the 9th Gen consoles came out in 2020. If the consoles follow the past pattern then there is only 1 more year till PS6 and Xbox whatever comes out. Hell, the Switch came out in 17 or 18 and I have heard rumors that Nintendo is getting ready to unveil the Switch 2. Has there been any word of Microsoft and Sony developing their next consoles yet?
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I honestly think the only one that will definitely have a console in the future is Nintendo because they have a committed and dedicated niche market.
Microsoft are going to abandon the console market and go a PC subscription service, all the signs point to that.
The trickier one to predict is Sony, they still hold the record for the most successful console (PS2), their PS3 started as a loss and then regained as it started being sold more as a blu ray player and then the PS4 dominated because Xbox flounded on DRM messaging. They might go subscription based too but it does mean relinquishing some control to Microsoft and Apple to go into a PC market. They're the ones that I can't judge the direction they might go as they also own Crunchyroll so they have PS to deal with AND AI replacing localisers who a lot of the higher ups in their streaming service support.
Microsoft is not leaving the console space. They are a dominant force in work and home offices. The Xbox acts like a Trojan horse and grants them access to the living room.
They have hinted that they view the future of consoles to be like cellphones. The come out with a new model every year, you buy one and, it has forward compatibility for a few years. With consoles becoming glorified X86 prebuilt PCs, they are right about to achieve their vision. And you think they will quit right at the finish line?
What people miss is that the CEO was going to spin off Xbox because Microsoft had to keep supporting it. Phill Spencer convinced him that they can reverse the direction of support and have Xbox prop up Microsoft.
So what does that mean for the future? It means that the Xbox console isn’t going to be the center of their world. The game pass/cloud gaming system will be. Xbox the system will stick around and be a leg of the stool. It acts like an easy on-ramp into their ecosystem.
If you were to say this back in 2020, I would agree with you. However, with the way the Xbox consoles are doing currently, to say they're selling badly is an understatement.
It had massive discounts in the UK and Europe over the holiday season, to the point consumers could get an Xbox Series X over 100 pounds or euros cheaper than the PS5. The result? The Xbox not only sold less than the PS5, but it also sold less in the 2023 holiday season compared to the 2022 holiday season. It already peaked during its 2nd full calendar year which is bad. You want to peak at the 3rd and 4th years.
The Series consoles have already tracked behind the Xbox One which performed substantially worse than the 360. If anything, Microsoft would be extremely lucky to sniff anywhere close to 40 million console sales. Making it even more damning is that from the court documents, 75% of the sales come from the Series S. Pretending the Series consoles sell 40 million lifetime, only 10 million of them will be Series X.
Microsoft's biggest issue isn't hardware related, but software related. The company has done a horrible job curating its flagship IPs like Halo, Forza (Motorsport. Horizon is doing well), and Gears. By the time they bought Bethesda and Activision, they were already damaged goods.