I am not an American, so don't have a clear picture of how the situation is over there (does sound bad), or how likely it actually is for something like a Civil War to break out, but I am hearing about it a lot from all sorts of people.
On the other hand, nothing of the sort seems to be happening, even though the US is supposedly being destroyed, stolen elections, inflation, tensions everywhere, left and right seemingly incapable of coexisting anymore, immigrant invasion, LGBT shit everywhere, people's kids groomed everywhere, and so on.
If all this is not enough, then what will it take? How would it happen? Who would fight with whom?
Based on the fact that nothing has happened so far with all of the above, and more, it sounds like nothing will ever happen.
The odds are increasing, but I would say they are still low for now.
The election stuff is a little too abstract, and people are waiting to see what happens in the next one (is my vote going to matter?). Inflation is a huge problem, but I also notice that people are still spending, so it’s not enough yet to lead to major discontent. Most likely it will have an effect on the midterm elections.
The latter stuff is true, but here’s the real issue: America is already divided into liberal and conservative spheres. I, for example, don’t see any of this LGBT crap where I live. This is what is preventing war and why you see people only beginning to talk about it.
The reality right now is that there is a huge migration happening. People are fleeing liberal areas and heading into conservative ones. That’s my experience. There is a consolidation occurring. You won’t see a civil war unless one of the following happens: there is an encroachment on conservative territory, living standards decline precipitously, or people feel that they no longer have representation.
The last one almost happened, but people are working on fixing it and seeing if that fix takes effect or not. The others aren’t here yet.