I've posted this pasta many times all across the internet and I think it's a pretty fair summation of the situation. Except as the days go by I start to question the

Those weapons are for decimating, flattening and glassing large areas and many people at once and fighting other state militaries. The government does not want to kill all of its people and blow up its own infrastructure.

part.

The current federal executive administration obviously does not care about, or straight-up hates, at least 50% of the population. I could see them going full scorched earth on large areas of the country. Tyrannical assholes are not always rational tyrannical assholes. They want a lot of people dead, now, and aren't really thinking about the consequences of that.

The "BUT when every random pedestrian could have a Glock in their waistband..." part is very important.

“And how we burned in the camps later, thinking: What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?… The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin’s thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt! If…if…We didn’t love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation…. We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.” - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago