I want to believe in virtual currency, but so much of the mining is happening in China, so over 50% of all bitcoin is owned in China. Those bitcoin miners can't sell their bitcoin due to a ban by the CCP, meaning that there is severe artificial scarcity dictated by Chinese law.
I see one potential future:
The CCP will confiscate all of the bitcoin owned in China
The CCP will imprison all bitcoin miners in China
The CCP will flood the market with all of the bitcoin they confiscated
The value of bitcoin will fall, causing a panic sale which will lead to the bitcoin market to crash.
Millions of bitcoin investors will lose significant amounts of money from the bitcoin crash, completely destroying the viability of bitcoin in the minds of the general public and even in the minds of a significant amount of more professional investors.
Bitcoin will eventually grow in price again over the two decades following the crash, but will never recover to the market value it once held. Market value will never grow beyond $2000 post-crash.
I want to believe in virtual currency, but so much of the mining is happening in China, so over 50% of all bitcoin is owned in China. Those bitcoin miners can't sell their bitcoin due to a ban by the CCP, meaning that there is severe artificial scarcity dictated by Chinese law. I see one potential future: