While I, in general, agree with your concerns about backwards looking analysis, confounders, and misleading data, in this case the numbers are so extreme that occam's razor points strongly in the direction of causality (or at least a shared cause). And since we don't have randomized prospective trials, we have to look backwards and do the best we can.
Speaking of shared causes, if you have any data or anecdotes to suggest that most of the unvaxxed people died in hospice and weren't given the vaccine because it was pointless, please send it my way, because it would drastically change my opinion (of course!)
Regarding differing average health levels of the two groups and the convergence. Totally agreed that this convergence could indiciate long-term health complications from the vaccine. Right now, if I had to bet, I would say both that the vaccines saved a lot of elderly lives, but will also cost lives in the future due to side effects (and given the extreme age stratification of death rates from covid should never have been given to the non-elderly).
And yes, it is 100% possible that the vaccines 'got lucky' by saving lives by preventing people from getting delta until omicron came about, but in that case the vaccines still saved lives. And I most certainly am not advocating for -more- mRNA vaccinations post-omicron.
Finally, since I never mentioned it - looking at just excess deaths in general between the two groups is basically the best you can do, since it limits bullshit from covid classification, but it is still susceptible to bad vaccination classification. More discussion here: https://reason.com/volokh/2023/01/10/no-lockdown-sweden-seemingly-tied-for-lowest-all-causes-mortality-in-oecd-since-covid-arrived/
While I, in general, agree with your concerns about backwards looking analysis, confounders, and misleading data, in this case the numbers are so extreme that occam's razor points strongly in the direction of causality (or at least a shared cause). And since we don't have randomized prospective trials, we have to look backwards and do the best we can.
Speaking of shared causes, if you have any data or anecdotes to suggest that most of the unvaxxed people died in hospice and weren't given the vaccine because it was pointless, please send it my way, because it would drastically change my opinion (of course!)
Regarding differing average health levels of the two groups and the convergence. Totally agreed that this convergence could indiciate long-term health complications from the vaccine. Right now, if I had to bet, I would say both that the vaccines saved a lot of elderly lives, but will also cost lives in the future due to side effects (and given the extreme age stratification of death rates from covid should never have been given to the non-elderly).
And yes, it is 100% possible that the vaccines 'got lucky' by saving lives by preventing people from getting delta until omicron came about, but in that case the vaccines still saved lives. And I most certainly am not advocating for -more- mRNA vaccinations post-omicron.
Finally, since I never mentioned it - looking at just excess deaths in general between the two groups is basically the best you can do, since it limits bullshit from covid classification, but it is still susceptible to bad vaccination classification.
While I, in general, agree with your concerns about backwards looking analysis, confounders, and misleading data, in this case the numbers are so extreme that occam's razor points strongly in the direction of causality (or at least a shared cause).
Speaking of shared causes, if you have any data or anecdotes to suggest that most of the unvaxxed people died in hospice and weren't given the vaccine because it was pointless, please send it my way, because it would drastically change my opinion (of course!)
Regarding differing average health levels of the two groups: the vaccinated group still has slightly less excess deaths in most age groups (except the oldest). Speaking of the oldest age groups, you'd have to take into account that covid killed off the least healthy unvaxxed people in that analysis.
And yes, it is 100% possible that the vaccines 'got lucky' by saving lives by preventing people from getting delta until omicron came about, but in that case the vaccines still saved lives. And I most certainly am not advocating for -more- mRNA vaccinations post-omicron.