If the relevant states manage to hold off or overthrow any legal injunctions and get their electors to vote faithfully (which feels like the wrong word to use here), then Trump is fucked.

But there are a multitude of ways for him to pull through:

• Hand recounts could be significantly different this time due to the vote counting machine shenanigans.
• If Giuliani is right and not allowing Republicans to watch the counting process is illegal, then getting all or a portion of mail-in votes discarded is entirely possible.
• Other types of auditing could prove further fraud (though I'm not too positive on their chances of proving fraud now that all the ballots are mixed up) and cause more ballots to be discarded (either directly or through a court-ordered adjustment of the count).
• Republican state legislators could appoint Republican electors who choose to elect Trump.
• If the process gets stalled long enough, SCOTUS could punt it to House delegations, with 1 delegate per state (and Republicans have a majority of the states).

So pending any legal victories, right now I give him 50/50 odds (you can count that as Trump +1 in your tally though). If we start getting favorable results like the hand recount in Georgia showing large differences or other legal victories, bump that up to 80%.

If the relevant states manage to hold off or overthrow any legal injunctions and get their electors to vote faithfully (which feels like the wrong word to use here), then Trump is fucked.

But there are a multitude of ways for him to pull through:

• Hand recounts could be significantly different this time due to the vote counting machine shenanigans.
• If Giuliani is right and not allowing Republicans to watch the counting process is illegal, then getting all or a portion of mail-in votes discarded is entirely possible.
• Other types of auditing could prove further fraud (though I'm not too positive on their chances of proving fraud now that all the ballots are mixed up) and cause more ballots to be discarded (either directly or through a court-ordered adjustment of the count).
• Republican state legislators could appoint Republican electors who choose to elect Trump.
• If the process gets stalled long enough, SCOTUS could punt it to House delegations, with 1 delegate per state (and Republicans have a majority of the states).

So pending any legal victories, right now I give him 50/50 odds. If we start getting favorable results like the hand recount in Georgia showing large differences or other legal victories, bump that up to 80%.

If the relevant states manage to hold off or overthrow any legal injunctions and get their electors to vote faithfully (which feels like the wrong word to use here), then Trump is fucked.

But there are a multitude of ways for him to pull through:

• Hand recounts could be significantly different this time due to the vote counting machine shenanigans.
• If Giuliani is right and not allowing Republicans to watch the counting process is illegal, then getting all or a portion of mail-in votes discarded is entirely possible.
• Other types of auditing could prove further fraud (though I'm not too positive on their chances of proving fraud now that all the ballots are mixed up) and cause more ballots to be discarded (either directly or through a court-ordered adjustment of the count).
• Republican state legislators could elect Republican electors who choose to elect Trump.
• If the process gets stalled long enough, SCOTUS could punt it to House delegations, with 1 delegate per state (and Republicans have a majority of the states).

So pending any legal victories, right now I give him 50/50 odds. If we start getting favorable results like the hand recount in Georgia showing large differences or other legal victories, bump that up to 80%.

If the relevant states manage to hold off or overthrow any legal injunctions and get their electors to vote faithfully (which feels like the wrong word to use here), then Trump is fucked.

But there are a multitude of ways for him to pull through:

• Hand recounts could be significantly different this time due to the vote counting machine shenanigans.
• If Giuliani is right and not allowing Republicans to watch the counting process is illegal, then getting all or a portion of mail-in votes discarded is entirely possible.
• Other types of auditing could prove further fraud (though I'm not too positive on their chances of proving fraud now that all the ballots are mixed up) and cause more ballots to be discarded (either directly or through a court-ordered adjustment of the count).
• Republican legislators could elect Republican electors who choose to elect Trump.
• If the process gets stalled long enough, SCOTUS could punt it to House delegations, with 1 delegate per state (and Republicans have a majority of the states).

So pending any legal victories, right now I give him 50/50 odds. If we start getting favorable results like the hand recount in Georgia showing large differences or other legal victories, bump that up to 80%.